Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Austria Vienna 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Austria Vienna, 28% draw, 42% Sturm Graz — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sturm Graz at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1S. Şahin-RadlingerG
- 46J. HandlD
- 15A. DragovićD
- 3I. BuhariD
- 40Daniel NnodimM
- 5V. MüllerM
- 6Philipp MaybachM
- 26R. RanftlM
- 10S. SaljicM
- 30M. FischerM
- 19J. EggesteinF
- 20J. HettwerF
- 21Matteo SchablasM
- 99M. KosG
- 22F. WustingerM
- 7V. MarkovicM
- 17Lee Tae-SeokD
- 16Lee Kang-HeeM
- 14K. BoatengF
- 4J. FeddersenD
- 53D. KhudyakovG
- 23A. MalicD
- 2J. QuarshieD
- 30P. KollerD
- 27L. BalboD
- 39Luca WeinhandlM
- 4J. Gorenc StankovičM
- 43Jacob Peter HödlM
- 19S. SeidlM
- 78V. MatoshiM
- 14O. DiakitéF
- 11A. KayomboF
- 40J. HalwachsM
- 6G. HaiderD
- 35N. GeyrhoferD
- 26B. BeganovićF
- 21P. PetrovićD
- 17S. WłodarczykF
- 22A. HelacG
Form going into Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
- D2-2away to Grazer AK19 September 2026
- W2-1Austria Lustenau13 September 2026
- L0-1WSG Wattens2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Red Bull Salzburg30 August 2026
Sturm Graz
- L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg20 September 2026
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
- D1-1Austria Lustenau22 August 2026
What these results say
- Austria Vienna conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Austria Vienna failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Austria Vienna scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sturm Graz failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sturm Graz scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 7 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz
- 10 October 2026Austria Vienna 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 26 April 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 15 March 2026Austria Vienna 2–5 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 14 December 2025Austria Vienna 3–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 14 September 2025Sturm Graz 0–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 27 April 2025Sturm Graz 0–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
Leading scorers: Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.