1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SV.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% 1899 Hoffenheim, 23% draw, 22% Hamburger SV — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1899 Hoffenheim at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. BaumannG
- 34V. CoufalD
- 5O. KabakD
- 28K. MachidaD
- 13BernardoD
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 20B. ContéM
- 11F. AsllaniM
- 14A. DaghimM
- 19T. LemperleF
- 17Nathan De CatM
- 15V. GendreyD
- 10A. HložekF
- 2R. HranáčD
- 27A. KramarićF
- 9Max MoerstedtF
- 37L. PhilippG
- 22A. PrassD
- 39M. RotsD
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 33S. BornauwD
- 17W. OmariD
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 6A. Sambi LokongaM
- 21N. RembergM
- 37L. LemkeM
- 20Fábio VieiraM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 12S. TangvikG
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 10I. PheraiM
- 43S. NandjaD
- 28M. MuheimD
- 38Alexander Røssing-LelesiitF
- 9T. MoffiF
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
- L1-3away to SC Paderborn 0720 September 2026
- W2-1VfB Stuttgart12 September 2026
- L2-3Borussia Dortmund5 September 2026
- L2-3away to 1. FC Köln29 August 2026
Hamburger SV
- W2-11. FC Köln19 September 2026
- L0-5away to RB Leipzig13 September 2026
- L0-5FSV Mainz 056 September 2026
- L0-2away to Borussia Dortmund29 August 2026
What these results say
- 1899 Hoffenheim scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim had three goals or more.
- Hamburger SV conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hamburger SV failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hamburger SV failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
- 10 October 20261899 Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 25 April 2026Hamburger SV 1–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 13 December 20251899 Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 14 April 20181899 Hoffenheim 2–0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
- 26 November 2017Hamburger SV 3–0 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 8 April 2017Hamburger SV 2–1 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
Leading scorers: 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV
1899 Hoffenheim
GoalsAssists
- A. Daghim22
Hamburger SV
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.