Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Union Berlin 1-0 SV Elversberg.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Union Berlin, 23% draw, 50% SV Elversberg — fair odds of 3.70, 4.35 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Elversberg at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. RønnowG
- 19J. HabererD
- 4Z. Van Den BoschD
- 2F. UduokhaiD
- 15T. RotheD
- 8R. KhediraM
- 13A. SchäferM
- 11Jeong Woo-YeongM
- 30K. ImeriM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 21T. SkarkeF
- 9Livan BurcuF
- 7O. BurkeF
- 6A. KemleinM
- 17D. KöhnD
- 27M. LjubiÄiÄF
- 14L. QuerfeldD
- 31M. RaabG
- 28C. TrimmelD
- 32M. GrayF
- 20N. KristofG
- 26L. SirchD
- 19L. PinckertD
- 31M. RohrD
- 21L. GüntherD
- 43F. KeidelM
- 8Ł. PorębaM
- 25L. PetkovM
- 10Noah DarvichM
- 29T. ZimmerschiedM
- 9N. FutkeuF
- 6A. CondéM
- 7M. KrattenmacherM
- 3F. Le JoncourD
- 2N. MickelsonD
- 42D. MokwaF
- 17F. SchmahlM
- 24L. SchnellbacherM
- 39William Cole CampbellF
- 28T. BossG
Form going into Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
Union Berlin
- L0-7away to Bayern München18 September 2026
- L1-3FC Schalke 0411 September 2026
- L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
SV Elversberg
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 0420 September 2026
- L1-2Bayern München13 September 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach5 September 2026
- W3-2Bayer Leverkusen29 August 2026
What these results say
- Union Berlin did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Union Berlin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Union Berlin had three goals or more.
- SV Elversberg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SV Elversberg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for SV Elversberg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 4 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
- 10 October 2026Union Berlin 1–0 SV ElversbergBundesliga
Leading scorers: Union Berlin and SV Elversberg
Union Berlin
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.