FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% FSV Mainz 05, 24% draw, 48% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 3.57, 4.17 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bayer Leverkusen at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 4S. PoschD
- 3F. GruberD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 19A. CaciM
- 5E. MartelM
- 6K. SanoM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 2P. MweneM
- 9P. TietzF
- 23S. BeckerF
- 16S. BellD
- 21D. da CostaD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 24S. KawasakiM
- 40M. KinzigG
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 4J. QuansahD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 2F. MedinaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 8R. AndrichM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 19M. DiabyM
- 30I. MazaM
- 9Afonso MoreiraM
- 14P. SchickF
- 10M. TillmanM
- 11M. TerrierF
- 23N. TellaF
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 7J. HofmannM
- 6E. FernándezM
- 22V. BonifaceF
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 5L. BadéD
Form going into FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach19 September 2026
- L1-3Eintracht Frankfurt12 September 2026
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
- W2-0RB Leipzig20 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Augsburg12 September 2026
- W4-0Union Berlin5 September 2026
- L2-3away to SV Elversberg29 August 2026
What these results say
- FSV Mainz 05 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for FSV Mainz 05 had three goals or more.
- Bayer Leverkusen scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Bayer Leverkusen had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 10 October 2026FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 28 February 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 18 October 2025FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 17 May 2025FSV Mainz 05 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
- 14 January 2025Bayer Leverkusen 1–0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 23 February 2024Bayer Leverkusen 2–1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz40
- S. Becker23
Bayer Leverkusen
GoalsAssists
- P. Schick51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.