10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

FC Augsburg vs Bayern München Bundesliga prediction & result

WWK Arena, Augsburg
Referee: Sven Jablonski, Germany
Full time2 – 2

Final score: FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayern München.

Before kick-off the model made it 17% FC Augsburg, 19% draw, 64% Bayern München — fair odds of 5.88, 5.26 and 1.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bayern München at 64% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Augsburg3%Draw89%Bayern München8%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Robin Fellhauer
1'
Chrislain Matsima
42'
Rodrigo Ribeiro
43'
51'
•Luis Díaz
55'
⚽Ismael Saibariassist: Harry Kane
Hennes Behrens
62'
🔁Seol Young-wooout: Anton Kade
62'
⚽Rodrigo Ribeiro
64'
67'
🔁Ismael Saibariout: Serge Gnabry
67'
🔁Josip Stanišićout: Nathaniel Brown
🔁Rodrigo Ribeiroout: Mert Kömür
75'
80'
⚽Nathaniel Brownassist: Harry Kane
🔁Arijon Ibrahimovicout: Michael Gregoritsch
82'
🔁Juma Bahout: Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
82'
87'
🔁Aleksandar Pavlovićout: Tom Bischof
87'
🔁Luis Díazout: Lennart Karl

Match stats — FC Augsburg vs Bayern München

30%Possession70%
12Shots30
5On target10
5Corners9
2.45xG5.1

Goals against chances

FC Augsburg2 from 2.45 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bayern München2 from 5.10 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Augsburg 3-4-2-1
  • 1F. DahmenG
  • 35Abdulay BahD
  • 5C. MatsimaD
  • 2C. BrackelmannD
  • 7Seol Young-WooM
  • 4H. MassengoM
  • 32F. RiederM
  • 16Hennes BehrensM
  • 19R. FellhauerM
  • 21A. IbrahimovićM
  • 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
Substitutes
  • 37T. SchnitzerM
  • 8K. SusoM
  • 6J. GouweleeuwD
  • 11M. GregoritschF
  • 30A. KadeM
  • 14Y. KeitelM
  • 10M. KömürM
  • 22N. LabrovićG
  • 39U. OgunduF
Coach: M. Baum
Bayern München 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. NeuerG
  • 44J. StanišićD
  • 2D. UpamecanoD
  • 4J. TahD
  • 19A. DaviesD
  • 6J. KimmichM
  • 45A. PavlovićM
  • 17M. OliseM
  • 34I. SaibariM
  • 14L. DíazM
  • 9H. KaneF
Substitutes
  • 23S. BoeyD
  • 11N. BrownD
  • 7S. GnabryF
  • 21H. ItoD
  • 42L. KarlM
  • 3Kim Min-JaeD
  • 39Bara NdiayeM
  • 40J. UrbigG
  • 8T. BischofM
Coach: V. Kompany

Form going into FC Augsburg vs Bayern München

FC Augsburg

  • L2-3away to Werder Bremen19 September 2026
  • D2-2Bayer Leverkusen12 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Eintracht Frankfurt6 September 2026
  • W3-0FC Schalke 0430 August 2026

Bayern München

  • W7-0Union Berlin18 September 2026
  • W2-1away to SV Elversberg13 September 2026
  • D0-0away to FC Schalke 045 September 2026
  • W5-1VfB Stuttgart28 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Augsburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for FC Augsburg had three goals or more.
  • FC Augsburg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bayern München went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Bayern München won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Bayern München scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6FC Augsburg5221138+58
3Bayern München5320164+1211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Augsburg vs Bayern München

  • 10 October 2026FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 24 January 2026Bayern München 1–2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
  • 30 August 2025FC Augsburg 2–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 4 April 2025FC Augsburg 1–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 22 November 2024Bayern München 3–0 FC AugsburgBundesliga
  • 27 January 2024FC Augsburg 2–3 Bayern MunichBundesliga

The full FC Augsburg vs Bayern München record →

Leading scorers: FC Augsburg and Bayern München

FC Augsburg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Gregoritsch30
  • R. Fellhauer30

Bayern München

GoalsAssists

  • M. Olise41
  • H. Kane33
  • I. Saibari22

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.