Real Madrid vs Villarreal La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Real Madrid, 21% draw, 19% Villarreal — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Madrid at 60% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 896 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 15A. GülerM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 25Y. DiomandeM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 13A. LuninG
- 26Sergio MestreG
- 9EndrickF
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 7Vinícius JúniorF
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 3A. FreemanD
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 8J. FoythM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 11Ilias AkhomachM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 16C. MaciaM
- 28Joselillo GaitánF
- 27N. El JmiliF
- 5A. DiattaM
- 2Logan CostaD
- 21T. OluwaseyiF
Form going into Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Real Madrid
- L1-2away to Atletico Madrid20 September 2026
- W3-2away to Elche15 September 2026
- W4-1Rayo Vallecano12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis4 September 2026
Villarreal
- W3-1Levante20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Malaga17 September 2026
- L1-2Real Betis14 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
What these results say
- Real Madrid conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Real Madrid scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Real Madrid had three goals or more.
- Villarreal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Villarreal had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
- 10 October 2026Real Madrid 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 24 January 2026Villarreal 0–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 4 October 2025Real Madrid 3–1 VillarrealLa Liga
- 15 March 2025Villarreal 1–2 Real MadridLa Liga
- 5 October 2024Real Madrid 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Villarreal 4–4 Real MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Madrid and Villarreal
Real Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Kylian Mbappé72
- J. Bellingham32
Villarreal
GoalsAssists
- P. Gueye30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.