Elche vs Celta Vigo La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Elche 0-0 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Elche, 28% draw, 34% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Elche at 38% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Elche vs Celta Vigo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. DituroG
- 22Rubén SánchezD
- 47J. MorcilloD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 11Germán ValeraD
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 8Marc AguadoM
- 18T. LemarM
- 20Tete MorenteF
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 6BigasD
- 26Matia Barzic GutiérrezD
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 16Martim NetoM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 19G. DianganaF
- 17JosanM
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 15K. LomónacoD
- 13I. RaduG
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 22Javi GalánM
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 7Borja IglesiasF
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 4A. FayeD
- 24C. DriouechF
- 21S. CáceresD
- 5Sergio CarreiraD
- 30H. BurcioM
Form going into Elche vs Celta Vigo
Elche
- W3-1away to Espanyol18 September 2026
- L2-3Real Madrid15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Athletic Club12 September 2026
- L2-3Real Sociedad7 September 2026
Celta Vigo
- W5-0Racing Santander19 September 2026
- D1-1Malaga13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
What these results say
- Elche scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Elche conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Elche.
- Celta Vigo went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Celta Vigo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Celta Vigo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 6 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Elche vs Celta Vigo
- 11 October 2026Elche 0–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 3 May 2026Celta Vigo 3–1 ElcheLa Liga
- 28 September 2025Elche 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 26 April 2023Celta Vigo 1–0 ElcheLa Liga
- 6 January 2023Elche 0–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 15 May 2022Celta Vigo 1–0 ElcheLa Liga
Leading scorers: Elche and Celta Vigo
Elche
GoalsAssists
- Fer Niño50
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.