11 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Racing Santander vs Valencia La Liga prediction & result

Estadio El Sardinero, Santander
Referee: L. Bestard Servera
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Racing Santander 2-2 Valencia.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Racing Santander, 25% draw, 34% Valencia — fair odds of 2.44, 4.00 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Racing Santander at 41% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Racing Santander5%Draw91%Valencia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Daniel Raba Antolínassist: Justin De Haas
Pablo Ramon Parra
22'
⚽Yassir Zabiriassist: Iñigo Vicente
32'
45+2'
Guido Rodríguez
Jorge Salinas Viadero
45+2'
45+4'
•Mouctar Diakhaby
45+4'
Daniel Raba Antolín
45'
🔁Mouctar Diakhabyout: Arnaut Danjuma
⚽Iván Martín
47'
58'
🔁Filip Ugrinicout: David Otorbi Ejededawe
58'
🔁Daniel Raba Antolínout: Harvey Elliott
🔁André Almeidaout: Andrés Martín
61'
🔁Pablo Ramon Parraout: Aarón Martin Caricol
61'
65'
⚽David Otorbi Ejededaweassist: Javi Guerra
72'
Pablo Maffeo
🔁Sergio Canalesout: Pablo García
75'
85'
🔁Javi Guerraout: Aliou Dieng
86'
🔁Pablo Maffeoout: Arnau Martínez López
🔁Matteo Pratiout: Maguette Gueye
87'
🔁Yassir Zabiriout: Asier Villalibre
87'
Iván Martín
90+2'

Match stats — Racing Santander vs Valencia

54%Possession46%
20Shots10
11On target2
8Corners3
1.32xG1.81

Goals against chances

Racing Santander2 from 1.32 xGmore than the chances were worth
Valencia2 from 1.81 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Racing Santander 4-1-4-1
  • 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
  • 2Álvaro MantillaD
  • 5Pablo RamónD
  • 24J. BelocianD
  • 17Jorge SalinasD
  • 18M. PratiM
  • 20Sergio CanalesM
  • 23Iván MartínM
  • 8André AlmeidaM
  • 10Iñigo VicenteM
  • 21M. ZabiriF
Substitutes
  • 19Iker LuqueF
  • 11Andrés MartínF
  • 12Asier VillalibreF
  • 6Íñigo Sainz-MazaM
  • 4Manu HernandoD
  • 3Aarón MartínD
  • 9Juan Carlos AranaF
  • 15Pablo GarcíaF
  • 31Laro GómezG
Coach: José Alberto López
Valencia 5-4-1
  • 1S. DimitrievskiG
  • 24Pablo MaffeoD
  • 4M. DiakhabyD
  • 18PepeluD
  • 12J. de HaasD
  • 14José GayàD
  • 19Dani RabaM
  • 23F. UgrinicM
  • 2G. RodríguezM
  • 8Javi GuerraM
  • 9Hugo DuroF
Substitutes
  • 22Arnau MartínezD
  • 37Aimar BlázquezF
  • 36Iker CórdobaD
  • 7A. DanjumaF
  • 15A. DiengM
  • 10H. ElliottM
  • 33Aaron MayolM
  • 27David OtorbiF
  • 39R. SatoM
Coach: J. Aguirre

Form going into Racing Santander vs Valencia

Racing Santander

  • L0-5away to Celta Vigo19 September 2026
  • L2-7away to Barcelona16 September 2026
  • W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026

Valencia

  • L2-3Real Sociedad20 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Alaves15 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Sevilla11 September 2026
  • L0-5Barcelona6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.
  • Racing Santander failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Valencia failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Valencia conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Racing Santander82241323-108
19Valencia8125615-95

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Valencia

  • 11 October 2026Racing Santander 2–2 ValenciaLa Liga
  • 29 January 2012Racing Santander 2–2 ValenciaLa Liga
  • 27 August 2011Valencia 4–3 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • 31 January 2011Racing Santander 1–1 ValenciaLa Liga
  • 11 September 2010Valencia 1–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga

The full Racing Santander vs Valencia record →

Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Valencia

Racing Santander

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zabiri70

Valencia

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.