11 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga prediction & result

Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Referee: Martin Petersen
Full time2 – 1

Final score: SC Freiburg 2-1 FC Schalke 04.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% SC Freiburg, 26% draw, 21% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SC Freiburg at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SC Freiburg96%Draw4%FC Schalke 040%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Maximilian Eggestein
10'
30'
⚽Kenan Karamanassist: Adrian Tobias Gantenbein
Yuito Suzuki
49'
Matthias Ginter
57'
Yuito Suzuki
64'
🔁Igor Matanovicout: Lucas Höler
65'
🔁Jan-Niklas Besteout: Cyriaque Irié
69'
🔁Yannick Engelhardtout: Keisuke Goto
69'
69'
🔁Satoshi Tanakaout: Ron Schallenberg
69'
🔁Junior Chukwubuike Adamuout: Edin Džeko
79'
🔁Adrian Tobias Gantenbeinout: Adil Aouchiche
79'
🔁Maximilian Wöberout: Timo Becker
79'
🔁Moussa Syllaout: Hwang Hee-Chan
🔁Philipp Treuout: Lukas Kübler
83'
🔁Derry Lionel Scherhantout: Vincenzo Grifo
83'
⚽Keisuke Gotoassist: Vincenzo Grifo
85'
87'
Hwang Hee-Chan

Match stats — SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

51%Possession49%
10Shots5
4On target1
7Corners2
1.22xG0.38

Goals against chances

SC Freiburg2 from 1.22 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Schalke 041 from 0.38 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BackhausG
  • 29P. TreuD
  • 28M. GinterD
  • 3P. LienhartD
  • 33J. MakengoD
  • 8M. EggesteinM
  • 16Y. EngelhardtM
  • 19J. BesteM
  • 14Y. SuzukiM
  • 7D. ScherhantM
  • 31I. MatanovićF
Substitutes
  • 42K. GotoF
  • 32V. GrifoM
  • 30C. GünterD
  • 9L. HölerF
  • 24J. HuthG
  • 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
  • 17L. KüblerD
  • 6P. OsterhageM
  • 37M. RosenfelderD
Coach: J. Schuster
FC Schalke 04 3-4-2-1
  • 1L. KariusG
  • 4H. KuruçayD
  • 25N. KatićD
  • 39M. WöberD
  • 17A. GantenbeinM
  • 23S. El-FaouziM
  • 13S. TanakaM
  • 8R. GosensM
  • 9M. SyllaM
  • 19K. KaramanM
  • 20J. AdamuF
Substitutes
  • 29J. Dina EbimbeM
  • 10E. DžekoF
  • 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
  • 22K. MüllerG
  • 6R. SchallenbergM
  • 5T. BeckerD
  • 33Vitalie BeckerD
  • 43M. AyhanD
  • 24A. AouchicheM
Coach: M. Muslić

Form going into SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

SC Freiburg

  • D2-2away to Eintracht Frankfurt19 September 2026
  • W5-0Borussia Mönchengladbach12 September 2026
  • W1-0away to SC Paderborn 075 September 2026
  • W4-1Werder Bremen30 August 2026

FC Schalke 04

  • D0-0SV Elversberg20 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Union Berlin11 September 2026
  • D0-0Bayern München5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to FC Augsburg30 August 2026

What these results say

  • SC Freiburg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • SC Freiburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • SC Freiburg won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Schalke 04 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Schalke 04 failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1SC Freiburg5410144+1013
13FC Schalke 04512246-25

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04

  • 11 October 2026SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • 23 April 2023SC Freiburg 4–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • 30 October 2022FC Schalke 04 0–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 17 April 2021SC Freiburg 4–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • 16 December 2020FC Schalke 04 0–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 27 June 2020SC Freiburg 4–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga

The full SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 record →

Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and FC Schalke 04

SC Freiburg

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Suzuki40
  • I. Matanović31
  • M. Eggestein30

FC Schalke 04

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.