TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: TSV Hartberg 4-3 Austria Lustenau.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% TSV Hartberg, 26% draw, 24% Austria Lustenau — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Austrian Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts TSV Hartberg at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 91Á. PécsiG
- 16M. DalpiazD
- 27K. SchoppD
- 14P. KomposchD
- 12M. PfeiferD
- 11J. DrewM
- 5Y. DiarraM
- 4B. MarkušM
- 95Nikolaus FeldhoferM
- 7A. GattermayerF
- 22M. HoffmanF
- 6Habib CoulibalyD
- 23T. KainzM
- 17J. KarnerM
- 77D. KorherrF
- 10O. LukicM
- 21L. MarićG
- 49A. RadulovićF
- 19L. SpendlhoferD
- 70C. OnuohaF
- 27D. SchierlG
- 7F. GmeinerD
- 18R. VoisineD
- 29N. PertlwieserD
- 3Danilo SoaresD
- 8D. KacuriM
- 11D. WeixelbraunM
- 20L. AfrifaM
- 17A. GashiM
- 24S. DiarraM
- 39A. VerinacF
- 21AnilsonD
- 14P. BenjaminF
- 30P. BöhmG
- 10Alieu ConatehF
- 23P. GrabherM
- 26L. IbertsbergerD
- 61H. IsmailcebiogluM
- 9L. JastremskiF
- 31M. MaakD
Form going into TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
TSV Hartberg
- D3-3Lask Linz20 September 2026
- D2-2away to WSG Wattens13 September 2026
- W3-2Ried30 August 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
Austria Lustenau
- W2-0SCR Altach19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Austria Vienna13 September 2026
- L0-4WSG Wattens28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Sturm Graz22 August 2026
What these results say
- TSV Hartberg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- TSV Hartberg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- TSV Hartberg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Austria Lustenau failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Austria Lustenau scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Austria Lustenau conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau
- 11 October 2026TSV Hartberg 4–3 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 29 October 2024Austria Lustenau 0–3 TSV HartbergCup
- 29 October 2023Austria Lustenau 0–4 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 29 July 2023TSV Hartberg 2–2 Austria LustenauBundesliga
- 2 June 2023Austria Lustenau 5–1 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 31 March 2023TSV Hartberg 0–1 Austria LustenauBundesliga
Leading scorers: TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau
TSV Hartberg
GoalsAssists
- C. Hoffmann31
- M. Hoffman30
- A. Radulović22
Austria Lustenau
GoalsAssists
- D. Weixelbraun61
- A. Verinac32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.