11 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga prediction & result

RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Referee: Florian Badstubner
Full time2 – 1

Final score: 1. FC Köln 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% 1. FC Köln, 25% draw, 32% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Köln at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Köln95%Draw5%Borussia Mönchengladbach0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Marius Bülter
13'
24'
Jan Leszczynski
⚽Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
26'
39'
⚽Joe Scally
🔁Ellyes Skhiriout: Tom Krauß
45'
64'
🔁Isac Lidbergout: Shuto Machino
64'
🔁Robin Hackout: Wael Mohya
⚽Said El Malaassist: Linton Maina
67'
68'
🔁Florian Neuhausout: Zento Uno
🔁Said El Malaout: Jan Thielmann
78'
🔁Luka Lochoshviliout: Joel Schmied
78'
80'
🔁Daiki Hashiokaout: Fritz Fleck
80'
🔁Jan Leszczynskiout: Fabio Cristian Chiarodia
81'
Zento Uno
🔁Mikey Mooreout: Imad Rondić
85'
🔁Linton Mainaout: Luca Waldschmidt
90+2'
90+6'
Shuto Machino

Match stats — 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

48%Possession52%
19Shots16
7On target7
6Corners6
1.35xG1.18

Goals against chances

1. FC Köln2 from 1.35 xGmore than the chances were worth
Borussia Mönchengladbach1 from 1.18 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Köln 4-1-2-1-2
  • 1M. SchwäbeG
  • 28S. SebulonsenD
  • 22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyD
  • 24L. LochoshviliD
  • 3B. SosaD
  • 6E. SkhiriM
  • 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
  • 37L. MainaM
  • 47M. MooreM
  • 30M. BülterF
  • 10S. El MalaF
Substitutes
  • 14G. MensahD
  • 5T. KraußM
  • 23Paul Michael Junior Okon-EngstlerM
  • 15I. RondićF
  • 2J. SchmiedD
  • 29J. ThielmannM
  • 7L. WaldschmidtF
  • 20R. ZielerG
  • 11Reigan HeskeyF
Coach: René Wagner
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4-2-1
  • 1M. NicolasG
  • 14D. HashiokaD
  • 4K. DiksD
  • 5J. LeszczyńskiD
  • 29J. ScallyM
  • 16P. SanderM
  • 10F. NeuhausM
  • 26L. UllrichM
  • 38H. BolinM
  • 25R. HackM
  • 3I. LidbergF
Substitutes
  • 34M. NguefackM
  • 36W. MohyaM
  • 18S. MachinoF
  • 22Y. KonoplyaD
  • 20D. HeroldD
  • 27F. FleckM
  • 2F. ChiarodiaD
  • 33D. BatzG
  • 47Z. UnoM
Coach: A. Blessin

Form going into 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

1. FC Köln

  • L1-2away to Hamburger SV19 September 2026
  • D1-1Werder Bremen12 September 2026
  • L1-4away to VfB Stuttgart4 September 2026
  • W3-21899 Hoffenheim29 August 2026

Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • L3-4FSV Mainz 0519 September 2026
  • L0-5away to SC Freiburg12 September 2026
  • L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to RB Leipzig29 August 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Köln scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 1. FC Köln conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for 1. FC Köln.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Borussia Mönchengladbach had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
101. FC Köln5212810-27
18Borussia Mönchengladbach5005718-110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • 11 October 20261. FC Köln 2–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 21 March 20261. FC Köln 3–3 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 8 November 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 9 March 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–3 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 22 October 20231. FC Köln 3–1 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 2 April 20231. FC Köln 0–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga

The full 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach record →

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.