Arouca vs Estrela Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Arouca 1-0 Estrela.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Arouca, 24% draw, 27% Estrela — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arouca at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arouca vs Estrela
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 14Lee Hyun-JuM
- 24B. MansillaF
- 9F. MayuluF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 23D. NandínF
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 5B. PopovićD
- 24Léo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Patrick LuanD
- 5S. LekovićD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 99A. MarcusM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 10I. StoicaM
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 79A. ChernevD
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 6K. Höög JanssonM
- 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
- 49R. MutebaF
- 28T. MoustierM
- 71E. Pedro VangaM
- 51Diogo PintoG
Form going into Arouca vs Estrela
Arouca
- D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026
- L1-2Santa Clara13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estoril7 September 2026
- W2-1Maritimo29 August 2026
Estrela
- L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026
- D3-3away to Rio Ave14 September 2026
- W2-1SC Braga10 September 2026
- D2-2Famalicao5 September 2026
What these results say
- Arouca failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arouca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arouca conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Estrela conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Estrela failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Estrela scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 14 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arouca vs Estrela
- 11 October 2026Arouca 1–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 19 April 2026Arouca 1–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 7 December 2025Estrela 3–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 19 April 2025Arouca 1–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
- 9 December 2024Estrela 2–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 5 May 2024Arouca 0–0 EstrelaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Arouca and Estrela
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
- L. Antonetti41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.