Maritimo vs FC Porto Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto.
Before kick-off the model made it 13% Maritimo, 20% draw, 67% FC Porto — fair odds of 7.69, 5.00 and 1.49. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 67% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Maritimo vs FC Porto
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 44Romain CorreiaD
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 21I. AlaniM
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 15Tomás TavaresM
- 8M. DominguezM
- 10Martín TejónM
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 3N. OgbetaD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 35B. LimbombeF
- 66I. AyumaM
- 18V. DanilovićM
- 12M. BassouaminaF
- 27S. BambaF
- 99Diogo CostaG
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 74Francisco MouraD
- 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 22A. VarelaM
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 7WilliamF
- 19André SilvaF
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 29S. GiménezF
- 17Borja SainzF
- 9SamuF
- 77O. PietuszewskiF
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 13P. RosarioM
- 42S. FofanaM
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 52Martim FernandesD
Form going into Maritimo vs FC Porto
Maritimo
- D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026
- L0-3Benfica5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arouca29 August 2026
FC Porto
- W3-1Benfica20 September 2026
- W4-1away to Casa Pia12 September 2026
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Academico Viseu29 August 2026
What these results say
- Maritimo did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Maritimo conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Maritimo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC Porto won every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Porto scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for FC Porto had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Maritimo vs FC Porto
- 10 October 2026Maritimo 1–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 1 February 2023Maritimo 0–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 6 August 2022FC Porto 5–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 30 January 2022FC Porto 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 22 August 2021Maritimo 1–1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- 22 February 2021Maritimo 1–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Maritimo and FC Porto
Maritimo
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Gabri Veiga43
- André Silva32
- Borja Sainz30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.