Primeira Liga predictions

Friday 23 October — 1 match

• 19:45 UTC Vitória SC vs Maritimo — model 39% / 29% / 32%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.45 · 3.13. Evenly matched

Saturday 24 October — 3 matches

• 14:30 UTC Alverca vs Arouca — model 38% / 28% / 34%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.63 · 3.57 · 2.94. Evenly matched
• 14:30 UTC Estrela vs Casa Pia — model 54% / 26% / 20%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.85 · 3.85 · 5.00. Edge: Estrela
• 19:30 UTC GIL Vicente vs FC Porto — model 17% / 27% / 56%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 5.88 · 3.70 · 1.79. One-sided: FC Porto

Sunday 25 October — 4 matches

• 15:30 UTC Estoril vs Moreirense — model 41% / 29% / 30%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.45 · 3.33. Evenly matched
• 18:00 UTC Nacional vs SC Braga — model 22% / 25% / 53%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 4.55 · 4.00 · 1.89. One-sided: SC Braga
• 18:00 UTC Rio Ave vs Famalicao — model 28% / 28% / 44%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.57 · 3.57 · 2.27. Edge: Famalicao
• 20:30 UTC Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu — model 65% / 20% / 15%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.54 · 5.00 · 6.67. One-sided: Sporting CP

Monday 26 October — 1 match

• 18:45 UTC Santa Clara vs Benfica — model 23% / 27% / 50%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 4.35 · 3.70 · 2.00. One-sided: Benfica

Last round: the model's hits and misses

9–12 October: the model called the result of 8 of 9 matches, 3 of them to the exact score.

• Moreirense 0–1 GIL Vicente — the model said 34% / 30% / 36%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
• SC Braga 1–3 Sporting CP — the model said 32% / 26% / 42%, most likely 1-2: result correct.
• Maritimo 1–2 FC Porto — the model said 13% / 20% / 67%, most likely 0-2: result correct.
• Academico Viseu 2–1 Estoril — the model said 51% / 27% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara — the model said 22% / 29% / 49%, most likely 0-1: exact scoreline.
• Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional — the model said 37% / 28% / 35%, most likely 1-0: result correct.
• Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC — the model said 73% / 17% / 10%, most likely 2-0: exact scoreline.
• Arouca 1–0 Estrela — the model said 49% / 24% / 27%, most likely 2-1: result correct.
• Famalicao 1–4 Alverca — the model said 49% / 28% / 23%, most likely 1-0: result missed.