Rio Ave vs Nacional Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Rio Ave 3-2 Nacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Rio Ave, 28% draw, 35% Nacional — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rio Ave at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rio Ave vs Nacional
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32Vitor HugoG
- 20João ToméD
- 5A. NtoiD
- 39Gustavo ManchaD
- 17M. VrousaiD
- 79M. PatricioM
- 54G. LiavasM
- 80S. ClemmensenM
- 19M. SelloukiM
- 7Diogo BezerraM
- 11J. BlesaF
- 60CaikeD
- 30R. GalčíkF
- 27T. MedinaM
- 44T. NikitscherM
- 23F. PetrassoD
- 90Diogo NascimentoM
- 70A. WenckM
- 8Ryan GuilhermeM
- 99E. van der GouwG
- 1Renato BellucciG
- 88DeivisonD
- 33Francisco GonçalvesD
- 38Zé VitorD
- 21W. KokoloD
- 15C. LabidiM
- 31D. DongmoM
- 10Daniel JúniorM
- 20Matchoi DjalóM
- 12Song Min-KyuM
- 29N. KaderF
- 2Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la CruzD
- 26Joel da SilvaM
- 13João GonçalvesG
- 9A. ObandoF
- 17F. NavaF
- 14Ivanildo FernandesD
- 7M. JensenM
- 11S. GavrielM
- 8Miguel BaezaM
Form going into Rio Ave vs Nacional
Rio Ave
- L0-1away to Alverca19 September 2026
- D3-3Estrela14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Santa Clara6 September 2026
- L0-4Sporting CP28 August 2026
Nacional
- L0-4Famalicao19 September 2026
- L1-3Alverca12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sporting CP5 September 2026
- L2-3Estrela30 August 2026
What these results say
- Rio Ave did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Rio Ave conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rio Ave failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nacional did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Nacional conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Nacional had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rio Ave vs Nacional
- 11 October 2026Rio Ave 3–2 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 25 January 2026Nacional 4–0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2025Rio Ave 1–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 10 May 2025Nacional 3–3 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
- 29 December 2024Rio Ave 2–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 31 July 2024Rio Ave 1–1 NacionalFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Rio Ave and Nacional
Rio Ave
GoalsAssists
- J. Blesa31
Nacional
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.