Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Hertha BSC, 23% draw, 22% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hertha BSC at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35M. GersbeckG
- 2J. EitschbergerD
- 44L. GechterD
- 27N. KolbeD
- 22M. PedersenD
- 30P. SeguinM
- 8K. SessaM
- 19O. AdewumiM
- 23J. ÞorsteinssonM
- 7J. BrekaloM
- 18L. SchulerF
- 20Farid Alfa-RuprechtF
- 43T. GollerG
- 33S. GouramM
- 17S. GrønningF
- 41P. KlemensD
- 21Boris Manuzah LumM
- 9G. NilssonF
- 47Selim TelibM
- 42D. ZeefuikD
- 1Florian HellsternG
- 2Lukas ReichD
- 22J. HeuerD
- 34Hendry Aron BlankD
- 23J. DehmD
- 6S. BanséM
- 13P. WillM
- 30F. KlausM
- 8S. AppelkampM
- 10Ole PohlmannM
- 42O. SillahF
- 37F. AdemiM
- 28D. ArifiM
- 9J. SiebatcheuF
- 11A. KellerM
- 29K. KeresztesD
- 39C. OrtagG
- 7D. SrbenyF
- 21M. WallentowitzM
- 45Olgherto BalliuM
Form going into Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Hertha BSC
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden19 September 2026
- W3-1away to VfL Osnabrück13 September 2026
- W2-11. FC Magdeburg6 September 2026
- W5-3away to Eintracht Braunschweig28 August 2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- D1-11. FC Magdeburg18 September 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Bochum12 September 2026
- L0-11. FC Heidenheim6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Energie Cottbus29 August 2026
What these results say
- Hertha BSC won every one of these 4 matches.
- Hertha BSC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Hertha BSC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 15 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 11 October 2026Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 10 May 2026Hertha BSC 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 12 December 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–3 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 4 May 2025Hertha BSC 1–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 7 December 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
- 11 February 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–2 Hertha Berlin2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Hertha BSC
GoalsAssists
- J. Brekalo45
- J. Þorsteinsson31
- O. Adewumi30
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
GoalsAssists
- F. Klaus51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.