1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1. FC Nürnberg 4-4 VfL Wolfsburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% 1. FC Nürnberg, 26% draw, 33% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Nürnberg at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. ReichertG
- 32T. JanischD
- 4A. KalogeropoulosD
- 20F. OttoD
- 41E. PorstnerD
- 6A. MarhievM
- 8J. FernandezM
- 10J. JustvanM
- 7R. GhriebM
- 23M. ZomaM
- 19P. ScobelF
- 11W. BøvingF
- 14andrea ceresoliD
- 44K. El HaijaD
- 9S. HaugenF
- 13Robin LisewskiG
- 18Rafael LubachM
- 21G. MasourasD
- 28Can Yaha MoustfaF
- 35M. Kornwachs BarjuanM
- 30J. ZielińskiG
- 2K. FischerD
- 6H. WahlD
- 22M. AngelyD
- 21J. MæhleD
- 31Y. GerhardtM
- 5Vinicius SouzaM
- 20M. DamarM
- 17A. BernhardssonF
- 19R. GlatzelF
- 11F. ReeseF
- 23A. BesioF
- 8Bence DárdaiM
- 46Dušan PernišG
- 12P. PervanG
- 37E. RexhbeçajM
- 7K. ShiogaiF
- 25A. ZehnterD
- 27M. ArnoldM
- 18J. AdjeteyD
Form going into 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Nürnberg
- W1-0away to Karlsruher SC19 September 2026
- W2-1Hannover 9611 September 2026
- D2-2away to Holstein Kiel5 September 2026
- W4-1Arminia Bielefeld29 August 2026
VfL Wolfsburg
- W5-1SV Darmstadt 9818 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC St. Pauli12 September 2026
- D4-4Energie Cottbus5 September 2026
- W5-2away to Karlsruher SC29 August 2026
What these results say
- 1. FC Nürnberg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 1. FC Nürnberg won 3 of these 4 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for VfL Wolfsburg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 17 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Nürnberg vs VfL Wolfsburg
- 10 October 20261. FC Nürnberg 4–4 VfL Wolfsburg2. Bundesliga
- 4 May 2019VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 FC NurnbergBundesliga
- 14 December 2018FC Nurnberg 0–2 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 19 December 2017FC Nurnberg 0–2 VfL WolfsburgDFB Pokal
- 12 April 2014VfL Wolfsburg 4–1 FC NurnbergBundesliga
- 23 November 2013FC Nurnberg 1–1 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Nürnberg and VfL Wolfsburg
1. FC Nürnberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Zoma70
- P. Scobel51
- A. Marhiev32
VfL Wolfsburg
GoalsAssists
- R. Glatzel41
- A. Bernhardsson33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.