11 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum
Referee: Konrad Oldhafer
Full time0 – 1

Final score: VfL Bochum 0-1 Arminia Bielefeld.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% VfL Bochum, 27% draw, 31% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts VfL Bochum at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfL Bochum0%Draw5%Arminia Bielefeld95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Michael Steinwender
23'
39'
Joel Felix
🔁Christian Theodor Kjelder Rasmussenout: Berkan Taz
63'
64'
🔁Isaiah Youngout: Benjamin boakye
64'
🔁Leon Jensenout: Jannik Rochelt
72'
Benjamin boakye
78'
⚽Benjamin boakyeassist: Joel Grodowski
🔁Mats Henry Pannewigout: Daniel Hanslik
81'
82'
🔁Joel Grodowskiout: David Min
🔁Maximilian Wittekout: alessandro crimaldi
86'
Gerrit Holtmann
87'
90'
🔁Marius Worlout: Leon Schneider
90'
David Min

Match stats — VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld

64%Possession36%
9Shots12
3On target2
6Corners4
0.53xG1.52

Goals against chances

VfL Bochum0 from 0.53 xGless than the chances were worth
Arminia Bielefeld1 from 1.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VfL Bochum 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. HornG
  • 2S. KlaiberD
  • 15M. SteinwenderD
  • 5K. MetsD
  • 32M. WittekD
  • 34T. MeyerM
  • 24M. PannewigM
  • 7C. RasmussenM
  • 23K. MiyoshiM
  • 17G. HoltmannM
  • 33P. HofmannF
Substitutes
  • 16T. CasaliG
  • 37Alessandro CrimaldiF
  • 19D. HanslikF
  • 39L. IsbruchM
  • 4Y. KarademirD
  • 29M. Ouro-TagbaF
  • 28C. PatinoM
  • 31L. SawasD
  • 10B. TazM
Coach: U. Rösler
Arminia Bielefeld 5-4-1
  • 1J. KerskenG
  • 2F. HagmannD
  • 19M. GroßerD
  • 5M. BauerD
  • 3J. FelixD
  • 17A. SickerD
  • 30I. YoungM
  • 21S. RussoM
  • 31L. JensenM
  • 38M. WörlM
  • 11J. GrodowskiF
Substitutes
  • 7H. KoudossouD
  • 6M. MehlemM
  • 9D. MinF
  • 18L. OppermannG
  • 10J. RocheltM
  • 23L. SchneiderD
  • 8S. SchreckM
  • 29T. HandwerkerD
  • 27Benjamin Bediako BoakyeF
Coach: Oliver Kirch

Form going into VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld

VfL Bochum

  • L1-2away to Hannover 9620 September 2026
  • D1-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth12 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden5 September 2026
  • L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026

Arminia Bielefeld

  • D2-21. FC Heidenheim20 September 2026
  • L1-2away to SV Darmstadt 9811 September 2026
  • D2-2FC St. Pauli4 September 2026
  • L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026

What these results say

  • VfL Bochum conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • VfL Bochum failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • VfL Bochum scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Arminia Bielefeld did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Arminia Bielefeld scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Arminia Bielefeld conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12VfL Bochum721457-27
9Arminia Bielefeld72231112-18

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs Arminia Bielefeld

  • 11 October 2026VfL Bochum 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • 2 May 2026Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • 6 December 2025VfL Bochum 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • 12 August 2023Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 VfL BochumDFB Pokal
  • 6 May 2022VfL Bochum 2–1 Arminia BielefeldBundesliga
  • 14 December 2021Arminia Bielefeld 2–0 VfL BochumBundesliga

Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and Arminia Bielefeld

VfL Bochum

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Arminia Bielefeld

GoalsAssists

  • J. Grodowski51

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.