FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FC St. Pauli 2-0 Karlsruher SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% FC St. Pauli, 23% draw, 19% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC St. Pauli at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. VollG
- 11A. PyrkaD
- 4D. NemethD
- 21L. RitzkaD
- 23L. OppieD
- 8E. SmithM
- 24C. MetcalfeM
- 20M. RasmussenM
- 16J. FujitaM
- 7Y. NiangF
- 9Abdoulie CeesayF
- 33D. MitovG
- 22Samuel KleinM
- 14E. AhlstrandM
- 17S. BanksF
- 25A. DźwigałaD
- 18T. HaraF
- 10B. HrgotaF
- 26R. JonesF
- 19M. KaarsF
- 1H. BernatG
- 28M. FrankeD
- 22C. KobaldD
- 24S. TrémouletD
- 36Rafael Pinto PedrosaM
- 10M. WanitzekM
- 26D. H. ZorM
- 33V. BerghM
- 3D. OfliM
- 13S. FukudaF
- 19Louey Ben FarhatF
- 25L. EgloffM
- 30R. HimmelmannG
- 2S. JungD
- 15Paul SchollD
- 6S. VäänänenM
- 23T. CivejaM
- 7K. WiethaupM
- 11N. EichingerM
- 37J. PonenteF
Form going into FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
FC St. Pauli
- D1-1away to Energie Cottbus20 September 2026
- W1-0VfL Wolfsburg12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld4 September 2026
- L1-21. FC Kaiserslautern30 August 2026
Karlsruher SC
- L0-11. FC Nürnberg19 September 2026
- L0-3Energie Cottbus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hannover 964 September 2026
- L2-5VfL Wolfsburg29 August 2026
What these results say
- FC St. Pauli scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC St. Pauli failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- FC St. Pauli conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Karlsruher SC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Karlsruher SC had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC
- 11 October 2026FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 20 July 2025FC St. Pauli 6–1 Karlsruher SCFriendlies Clubs
- 6 April 2024Karlsruher SC 2–1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
- 28 October 2023FC St. Pauli 2–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 28 May 2023FC St. Pauli 1–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 12 November 2022Karlsruher SC 4–4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FC St. Pauli and Karlsruher SC
FC St. Pauli
GoalsAssists
- Abdoulie Ceesay30
Karlsruher SC
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.