Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Lusitânia Lourosa 1-1 Chaves.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Lusitânia Lourosa, 21% draw, 19% Chaves — fair odds of 1.67, 4.76 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lusitânia Lourosa at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves
Line-ups
- 29Brian AraújoG
- 24RicardinhoD
- 4D. CollardD
- 22Bruno FariaD
- 52F. MachadoD
- 12ArsénioF
- 20Diogo PauloM
- 27FabinhoM
- 19SaliouD
- 17João SantosF
- 21PaulitéF
- 60DanielM
- 7Micael correiaF
- 90Iuri MoreiraF
- 42Guilherme SoaresD
- 80ManelF
- 6António MontezD
- 16Luís RochaD
- 9João SilvaF
- 5SilvérioD
- 1João ValidoG
- 23Léo AlabáD
- 33Tiago SimõesD
- 34Ricardo AlvesD
- 14N. AraújoD
- 42Aílson TavaresM
- 19Gilberto GarcíaM
- 10André RodriguesF
- 30CostinhaF
- 18Wilson TavaresF
- 7R. EsajasD
- 16D. YearwoodM
- 13I. VázquezD
- 29M. TounkaraD
- 17RobertoF
- 11Pedro PelágioM
- 9Marcos MaiaF
- 5Kiko Vilas BoasD
- 8João TeixeiraM
- 88M. GudžulićG
Form going into Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves
Lusitânia Lourosa
- W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026
- W2-1AVS7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Academica29 August 2026
- D2-2Torreense22 August 2026
Chaves
- L0-4away to Farense4 October 2026
- W1-0Feirense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Felgueiras 193230 August 2026
- D2-2AVS23 August 2026
What these results say
- Lusitânia Lourosa went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Lusitânia Lourosa won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chaves failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chaves scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Chaves conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 17 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves
- 11 October 2026Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 24 January 2026Chaves 2–2 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
- 16 August 2025Lusitânia Lourosa 2–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 20 October 2024Chaves 2–0 Lusitânia LourosaTaça de Portugal
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.