Benfica B
vs
Felgueiras 1932
Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Benfica B 1-0 Felgueiras 1932.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Benfica B, 27% draw, 20% Felgueiras 1932 — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Benfica B 1.64, Felgueiras 1932 0.81.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica B at 53% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932
Line-ups
- 50Diogo FerreiraG
- 78D. SoaresD
- 55João Carvalho FonsecaD
- 33Gabriel IndioD
- 62J. NetoD
- 76R. QuintasM
- 60Nuno FélixM
- 88Tiago FreitasM
- 77Gonçalo Carvalho MoreiraF
- 72A. CabralF
- 74O. TomeF
- 81Stevan ManuelM
- 79T. SoaresF
- 87Peter EdokpolorF
- 91Francisco SilvaF
- 71F. ColettaM
- 52João CapuchoD
- 85Martim Maria FerreiraM
- 94Rui SilvaD
- 93diego coelho
- 14Mateus PasinatoG
- 70B. OuacharafD
- 3João PintoD
- 15Armando LopesD
- 23Afonso de FreitasD
- 20Rodrigo Santos RibeiroM
- 6Henrique MartinsM
- 77Francisco FrançaM
- 80Tiago Ventura da SilvaF
- 7Mario RivasF
- 19Lucas da Costa DuarteF
- 25Felipe ScheibigG
- 16Beni JetourM
- 95Nuno NamoraD
- 17Filipe CruzD
- 9Tiago Rafael Fernandes LeiiteF
- 10Michel CostaM
- 5Afonso PeixotoD
- 96Martim Duarte
- 13JoãozinhoF
Form going into Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932
Benfica B
- W3-0away to Academica11 September 2026
- L0-2Torreense5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Amarante30 August 2026
- D1-1Portimonense21 August 2026
Felgueiras 1932
- L1-2Penafiel12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Vizela6 September 2026
- W2-1Chaves30 August 2026
- D1-1away to Farense24 August 2026
What these results say
- Benfica B failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Benfica B conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Benfica B had two goals or fewer.
- Felgueiras 1932 conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Felgueiras 1932 scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 13 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Benfica B vs Felgueiras 1932
- 12 October 2026Benfica B 1–0 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
- 14 February 2026Benfica B 4–2 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
- 13 September 2025Felgueiras 1932 2–1 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 4 May 2025Felgueiras 1932 3–3 Benfica BSegunda Liga
- 22 December 2024Benfica B 2–0 Felgueiras 1932Segunda Liga
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.64 goals for Benfica B and 0.81 for Felgueiras 1932; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Anísio Cabral 33' (Benfica B).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benfica B the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Benfica B against 0.81 for Felgueiras 1932. Benfica B's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.38 for Felgueiras 1932.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.