Levante
vs
Sevilla
La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Levante 3-3 Sevilla.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Levante, 26% draw, 32% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Levante 1.66, Sevilla 1.37.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
More La Liga predictions
Model insights: Levante vs Sevilla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levante at 42% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Levante vs Sevilla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13M. RyanG
- 22J. ToljanD
- 4DelaD
- 3IfeanyiIfeanyi NdukweD
- 23Manu SánchezD
- 17Víctor GarcíaM
- 20Oriol ReyM
- 8Jon Ander OlasagastiM
- 7BruguiM
- 9Iván RomeroF
- 11Yanis MusuayiF
- 14Jorge CabelloD
- 27Paco CortésF
- 1Pablo CuñatG
- 24T. FernándezF
- 36I. GaldinG
- 2A. MandiD
- 29Nacho PérezD
- 10P. RatkovF
- 6RequeM
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2Juan IglesiasD
- 5Andrés CastrínD
- 4Kike SalasD
- 17G. SuazoD
- 8G. KochorashviliM
- 6L. AgouméM
- 30Miguel ÁngelM
- 24Y. FofanaM
- 20Félix CorreiaM
- 9R. UreF
- 22José Ángel CarmonaD
- 3Julio Díaz del RomoD
- 21C. EjukeF
- 10Peque FernándezF
- 7Alfon GonzálezF
- 13Fran GonzálezG
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 15Fábio CardosoD
- 16IsaacF
Form going into Levante vs Sevilla
Levante
- L1-3away to Villarreal20 September 2026
- L2-4Barcelona13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malaga6 September 2026
- W5-2Real Betis29 August 2026
Sevilla
- L1-3Barcelona19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Deportivo La Coruna16 September 2026
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Espanyol6 September 2026
What these results say
- Levante failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Levante scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Levante conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sevilla scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sevilla had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 6 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Levante vs Sevilla
- 12 October 2026Levante 3–3 SevillaLa Liga
- 23 April 2026Levante 2–0 SevillaLa Liga
- 4 January 2026Sevilla 0–3 LevanteLa Liga
- 21 April 2022Levante 2–3 SevillaLa Liga
- 24 October 2021Sevilla 5–3 LevanteLa Liga
- 21 April 2021Levante 0–1 SevillaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Levante and Sevilla
Levante
GoalsAssists
- Brugui31
- Iván Romero30
Sevilla
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.66 goals for Levante and 1.37 for Sevilla; the game produced 3 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Robbie Ure 13' (Sevilla), Felix Correia 54' (Sevilla), Iván Romero 57' (Levante), Adrián de la Fuente Barquilla 90' (Levante), Isaac Romero 90' (Sevilla), Ifeanyi Ndukwe 90' (Levante).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Levante the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Levante against 1.37 for Sevilla. Levante's attack/defence rating is 1.01/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.96/1.01 for Sevilla.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.