Torino
vs
Udinese
Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Torino 2-1 Udinese.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Torino, 27% draw, 36% Udinese — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Torino 1.42, Udinese 1.41.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Torino vs Udinese
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torino at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Torino vs Udinese
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 20Lucas PerriG
- 15P. ComuzzoD
- 23Saúl CocoD
- 13R. RodríguezD
- 45R. BelghaliM
- 8R. MandragoraM
- 21Daniel BragançaM
- 77A. CacciamaniM
- 11G. OristanioM
- 19C. AdamsM
- 18G. SimeoneF
- 22C. CasadeiM
- 91D. ZapataF
- 10N. VlašićM
- 76L. SivieroG
- 9P. PellegriF
- 2N. PattersonD
- 26D. MascardiG
- 17S. KulenovićF
- 44A. IsmajliD
- 40M. OkoyeG
- 14J. AbankwahD
- 28O. SoletD
- 77E. EbosseD
- 23M. VojvodaM
- 8J. KarlströmM
- 6Oier ZarragaM
- 11H. KamaraM
- 32J. EkkelenkampM
- 30G. ChakvetadzeM
- 46Unai GómezF
- 13N. BertolaD
- 9K. DavisF
- 91L. JovanoviÄF
- 27C. KabaseleD
- 4S. LovrićM
- 38L. MillerM
- 41B. MrozekG
- 93D. PadelliG
- 20J. ArizalaM
Form going into Torino vs Udinese
Torino
- D1-1away to Bologna19 September 2026
- L0-2AS Roma14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Fiorentina5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026
Udinese
- L0-1Cagliari19 September 2026
- L3-5away to Inter14 September 2026
- L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
What these results say
- Torino conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Torino failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Torino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Udinese conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Udinese failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Udinese scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Torino vs Udinese
- 12 October 2026Torino 2–1 UdineseSerie A
- 2 May 2026Udinese 2–0 TorinoSerie A
- 7 January 2026Torino 1–2 UdineseSerie A
- 23 April 2025Torino 2–0 UdineseSerie A
- 29 December 2024Udinese 2–2 TorinoSerie A
- 16 March 2024Udinese 0–2 TorinoSerie A
Leading scorers: Torino and Udinese
Torino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Udinese
GoalsAssists
- J. Ekkelenkamp31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.42 goals for Torino and 1.41 for Udinese; the game produced 2 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Daniel Bragança 36' (Torino), Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 43' (Udinese), Sandro Kulenović 67' (Torino).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torino the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Torino against 1.41 for Udinese. Torino's attack/defence rating is 0.98/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.04 for Udinese.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.