Pumas UNAM
vs
Cruz Azul
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Pumas UNAM 3-3 Cruz Azul.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Pumas UNAM, 25% draw, 32% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pumas UNAM 1.90, Cruz Azul 1.59.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pumas UNAM at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LópezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5Rubén DuarteD
- 2P. BennevendoD
- 21U. AntunaM
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 10C. HuertaM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 23JuninhoF
- 14L. HerreraF
- 34Á. AzuajeD
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 77Á. AnguloD
- 35P. LaraG
- 24T. LeoneD
- 15I. LunaM
- 30Santiago López LópezF
- 22A. MedinaF
- 23K. MierG
- 22J. RodarteD
- 4W. DittaD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 16J. MárquezM
- 6É. LiraM
- 19C. RodríguezM
- 7N. IbáñezM
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 21G. FernándezF
- 60Ariel Castro SevillaM
- 11C. EbereF
- 17A. GarcíaM
- 1A. GudiñoG
- 10A. MontañoM
- 12A. MontesD
- 2A. MozoD
- 33G. PioviD
- 18L. RomeroF
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
Pumas UNAM
- L2-3Atletico San Luis27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
Cruz Azul
- D3-3Toluca26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Monterrey20 September 2026
- W4-3Club America13 September 2026
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
What these results say
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Pumas UNAM scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cruz Azul scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
- 12 October 2026Pumas UNAM 3–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 25 May 2026Pumas UNAM 1–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 22 May 2026Cruz Azul 0–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 15 March 2026Pumas UNAM 2–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 9 November 2025Cruz Azul 2–3 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 11 October 2025Cruz Azul 2–0 Pumas UNAMFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho61
- R. Morales33
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- N. Ibáñez42
- G. Fernández41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.90 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.59 for Cruz Azul; the game produced 3 and 3.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnio 10' (Pumas UNAM), Cesar Huerta 16' (Pumas UNAM), Agustín Palavecino 45' (Cruz Azul), Robert Morales 49' (Pumas UNAM), Andrés Montaño 64' (Cruz Azul), Osinachi Ebere 85' (Cruz Azul).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pumas UNAM the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Pumas UNAM against 1.59 for Cruz Azul. Pumas UNAM's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.32 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.31 for Cruz Azul.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.