Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atletico San Luis 1-2 Santos Laguna.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Atletico San Luis, 25% draw, 25% Santos Laguna — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico San Luis at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. LajudG
- 30B. GalindoD
- 31E. ÁguilaD
- 18A. CruzD
- 2R. TorresM
- 21Ó. MacíasM
- 10S. Salles-LamongeM
- 17A. DuarteM
- 11D. RodríguezM
- 22Rafa LlorenteM
- 99F. MoraF
- 16Lucas EstevesD
- 20L. FloresF
- 7B. GaldamesM
- 14M. GarcíaM
- 5R. MerazM
- 19S. MuñózF
- 8L. NájeraM
- 26S. Pérez BouquetM
- 6JuanpeD
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 3M. CuevasD
- 18F. PardoD
- 25Felipe SánchezD
- 14E. OronaD
- 7D. GonzálezD
- 26R. SordoM
- 21Fran VillalbaM
- 23F. CáseresM
- 10E. BullaudeM
- 29Tahiel Adrián Jiménez SánchezF
- 28Jonathan PérezD
- 77K. PalaciosM
- 8S. MariscalM
- 5A. LópezM
- 20E. LozanoF
- 33H. HolguínG
- 6J. GüémezM
- 17E. EcheverrÃaD
- 19E. AguirreF
Form going into Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna
Atletico San Luis
- W3-2away to Pumas UNAM27 September 2026
- W3-1Necaxa19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Leon15 September 2026
- L0-3Guadalajara Chivas5 September 2026
Santos Laguna
- W1-0CF Pachuca27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Toluca21 September 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico San Luis conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico San Luis had three goals or more.
- Santos Laguna won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Santos Laguna scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Santos Laguna conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna
- 11 October 2026Atletico San Luis 1–2 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 23 April 2026Atletico San Luis 2–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 21 September 2025Santos Laguna 1–4 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 30 March 2025Santos Laguna 2–3 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 29 September 2024Atletico San Luis 3–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 29 April 2024Santos Laguna 0–3 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.