11 October 2026, 23:10 UTC

CF Pachuca vs Necaxa Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Referee: Maximiliano Quintero Hernandez
Full time3 – 3

Final score: CF Pachuca 3-3 Necaxa.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% CF Pachuca, 23% draw, 17% Necaxa — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts CF Pachuca at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

CF Pachuca6%Draw92%Necaxa2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽Matias Espindola
•Christian Rivera
37'
41'
⚽Julián Carranzaassist: Matias Espindola
45+7'
Miguel Rodriguez
⚽Eduardo Dos Santosassist: Oussama Idrissi
45+8'
🔁Ian Josué Zavala Osorioout: Javier Vallejo
45'
🔁Sergio Rodríguezout: Adrián Alcaraz
45'
52'
🔁Julián Carranzaout: Juan Valencia
60'
Matias Espindola
62'
🔁Matias Espindolaout: Lorenzo Faravelli
62'
🔁Owen Gonzálezout: Kevin Ante
🔁Oussama Idrissiout: Gael Álvarez
63'
🔁Sebastian Santosout: Alan Bautista
63'
67'
Luis Jiménez
74'
🔁Miguel Rodriguezout: Raúl Martínez
74'
🔁Emilio Martínezout: Javier Ruiz
Francisco Venegas
77'
Javier Vallejo
78'
79'
⚽Juan Valencia (pen)
🔁Francisco Venegasout: Mauricio Isais
80'
⚽Salomón Rondónassist: Rodolfo Pizarro
84'
85'
Juan Valencia
⚽Salomón Rondónassist: Rodolfo Pizarro
87'
Eduardo Dos Santos
90+3'
Alan Bautista
90+9'

Match stats — CF Pachuca vs Necaxa

61%Possession39%
18Shots16
6On target7
5Corners3
1.15xG3.25

Goals against chances

CF Pachuca3 from 1.15 xGmore than the chances were worth
Necaxa3 from 3.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1
  • 25C. MorenoG
  • 12S. SantosD
  • 4Eduardo BauermannD
  • 2S. BarretoD
  • 15F. VenegasD
  • 30S. RodríguezM
  • 16C. RiveraM
  • 207Ian Josué Zavala OsorioM
  • 7R. PizarroM
  • 11O. IdrissiM
  • 23S. RondónF
Substitutes
  • 9A. AlcárazF
  • 26Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezM
  • 13J. BerlangaD
  • 32P. BudibD
  • 206Thomas ContrerasM
  • 31J. EulogioG
  • 211C. HernandezF
  • 6M. IsaísD
  • 21N. VallejoF
Coach: B. Mora
Necaxa 4-1-4-1
  • 12L. JiménezG
  • 2E. MartínezD
  • 3A. OliverosD
  • 15D. OchoaD
  • 88C. VargasD
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 99M. RodríguezM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 21M. EspíndolaM
  • 13Owen de Jesús González OjedaM
  • 9J. CarranzaF
Substitutes
  • 7K. RoseroF
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 5Kaiky NavesD
  • 33R. MartínezD
  • 20F. MéndezD
  • 181J. OrantesG
  • 10J. RuizM
  • 11J. TorresM
  • 90J. ValenciaF
Coach: Juan Reynoso

Form going into CF Pachuca vs Necaxa

CF Pachuca

  • L0-1away to Santos Laguna27 September 2026
  • D2-2Club Tijuana21 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Atlante FC12 September 2026
  • W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026

Necaxa

  • L2-4Club America28 September 2026
  • L1-3away to Atletico San Luis19 September 2026
  • L0-1Puebla12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Tigres UANL6 September 2026

What these results say

  • CF Pachuca scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Necaxa did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Necaxa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Necaxa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11CF Pachuca113441814+413
17Necaxa112361523-89

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Necaxa

  • 11 October 2026CF Pachuca 3–3 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 4 March 2026CF Pachuca 2–1 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 4 October 2025Necaxa 0–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 12 April 2025Necaxa 3–5 CF PachucaLiga MX
  • 3 November 2024CF Pachuca 6–2 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 6 May 2024CF Pachuca 2–1 NecaxaLiga MX

The full CF Pachuca vs Necaxa record →

Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Necaxa

CF Pachuca

GoalsAssists

  • S. Rondón120

Necaxa

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carranza72

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.