Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia First League prediction & result
Final score: Cherno More Varna 0-2 Levski Sofia.
Before kick-off the model made it 14% Cherno More Varna, 22% draw, 64% Levski Sofia — fair odds of 7.14, 4.55 and 1.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Levski Sofia at 64% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
Line-ups
- 31D. HristovG
- 37V. KerchevD
- 93G. VentsislavovD
- 5L. SquadroneD
- 50E. TombakD
- 24David TelesM
- 99I. BounaasM
- 11M. AchiM
- 71V. PanayotovM
- 8A. DonchevF
- 10Celso SidneyF
- 6M. BanevM
- 7M. BarandasF
- 29B. BeyhanM
- 26João BandaróD
- 22N. KostadinovM
- 34K. MihaylovM
- 9J. PadillaF
- 17I. TasevF
- 14A. TodorovD
- 1O. VladimirovG
- 71O. KamdemD
- 18G. TrdinM
- 4C. MakounD
- 3MaiconF
- 8M. GrujićM
- 19E. El MoubarikM
- 35SerginhoM
- 7ReinaldoF
- 12M. SangaréF
- 17Everton BalaF
- 92S. VutsovG
- 28S. StoyanchovF
- 77A. RaychevF
- 9J. PereaF
- 11A. Oko-FlexF
- 21AldairD
- 27David KussoF
- 55P. HristovD
- 2Hevertton SantosD
Form going into Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
Cherno More Varna
- D1-1away to Arda Kardzhali19 September 2026
- D2-2Lokomotiv Sofia11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv6 September 2026
- L1-3away to CSKA Sofia30 August 2026
Levski Sofia
- D0-0away to Botev Vratsa13 September 2026
- W1-0CSKA 19485 September 2026
- W2-1away to Slavia Sofia2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botev Plovdiv30 August 2026
What these results say
- Cherno More Varna did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cherno More Varna scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Levski Sofia went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Levski Sofia won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Levski Sofia scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 6 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | +19 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
- 11 October 2026Cherno More Varna 0–2 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 21 March 2026Levski Sofia 2–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 19 October 2025Cherno More Varna 1–3 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 26 May 2025Cherno More Varna 0–0 Levski SofiaFirst League
- 10 May 2025Levski Sofia 2–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 13 April 2025Levski Sofia 1–2 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.