Ludogorets
vs
Arda Kardzhali
First League prediction & result
Final score: Ludogorets 5-0 Arda Kardzhali.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Ludogorets, 23% draw, 15% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Ludogorets 2.07, Arda Kardzhali 0.74.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ludogorets at 62% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali
Line-ups
- 39H. BonmannG
- 42S. ShishkovD
- 4Hossam AbdelmaguidD
- 15E. KurtulusD
- 2J. AnderssonD
- 6I. ZhelizkoM
- 23Deroy DuarteM
- 37B. TekpeteyF
- 14P. StanićM
- 11Caio VidalF
- 12Rwan CruzF
- 16Nathan FernandesF
- 3A. NedyalkovD
- 44O. RekikD
- 22M. PolendakovD
- 5G. TerzievD
- 20A. CamaraM
- 18I. ChochevM
- 77Erick MarcusF
- 13I. GrbićG
- 1A. GospodinovG
- 6V. PopovD
- 24M. PaskalevD
- 5V. LyubenovD
- 35D. VelkovskiD
- 80L. KotevM
- 21V. VelevD
- 10S. KovachevF
- 39A. VutovM
- 91S. IvanovF
- 9G. NikolovF
- 18S. VasilevD
- 70Nabil MakniF
- 99B. KaragarenF
- 11A. KabovF
- 22Y. GeorgievG
- 2Derick Fernando da SilvaD
- 16P. BachevF
- 26B. AkandzhaM
- 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
Form going into Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali
Ludogorets
- W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lokomotiv Sofia6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spartak Varna30 August 2026
- D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
Arda Kardzhali
- D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026
- L1-4away to CSKA Sofia12 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Plovdiv4 September 2026
- W2-0Botev Vratsa31 August 2026
What these results say
- Ludogorets went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Ludogorets scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Ludogorets conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arda Kardzhali conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 26 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali
- 12 October 2026Ludogorets 5–0 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 15 April 2026Arda Kardzhali 1–0 LudogoretsFirst League
- 9 November 2025Ludogorets 2–3 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 26 May 2025Ludogorets 2–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
- 9 May 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–1 LudogoretsFirst League
- 4 December 2024Arda Kardzhali 0–4 LudogoretsFirst League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.07 goals for Ludogorets and 0.74 for Arda Kardzhali; the game produced 5 and 0.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Caio Vidal Rocha 18' (Ludogorets), Bernard Tekpetey 44' (Ludogorets), Bernard Tekpetey 45' (Ludogorets), Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz 55' (Ludogorets), Ivan Zhelizko 86' (Ludogorets).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ludogorets the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Ludogorets against 0.74 for Arda Kardzhali. Ludogorets's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.79 for Arda Kardzhali.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.