Regular Season - 6 · 12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Coventry vs Newcastle Premier League prediction & result

Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Referee: John Brooks
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Coventry 4-1 Newcastle.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Coventry, 26% draw, 36% Newcastle — fair odds of 2.63, 3.85 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Coventry 1.63, Newcastle 1.56.

Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Coventry vs Newcastle

64%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 9%1-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Coventry at 38% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Coventry99%Draw1%Newcastle0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jack Rudoni (pen)
6'
⚽Sidiki Cherif
48'
59'
🔁Lewis Mileyout: Amar Dedić
59'
🔁Jacob Murphyout: Bazoumana Touré
59'
🔁Joe Willockout: Joelinton
🔁Ephron Mason-Clarkout: Tatsuhiro Sakamoto
61'
Milan van Ewijk
66'
70'
⚽Sven Botmanassist: Nico González
🔁Caleb Yirenkyiout: Frank Onyeka
78'
🔁Sidiki Cherifout: Ellis Simms
78'
78'
🔁Yoane Wissaout: William Osula
⚽Ellis Simmsassist: Brandon Thomas-Asante
81'
81'
Joelinton
🔁Jack Rudoniout: Victor Torp
83'
🔁Matt Grimesout: Stephen Mfuni
83'
⚽Stephen Mfuniassist: Jay Dasilva
86'
90'
🔁Bazoumana Touréout: Dan Burn

Match stats — Coventry vs Newcastle

33%Possession67%
9Shots19
6On target6
2Corners6
1.47xG1.87

Goals against chances

Coventry4 from 1.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Newcastle1 from 1.87 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Coventry 4-2-3-1
  • 19C. RushworthG
  • 27M. van EwijkD
  • 2E. PinnockD
  • 4B. ThomasD
  • 3J. DasilvaD
  • 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
  • 6M. GrimesM
  • 23B. Thomas-AsanteM
  • 5J. RudoniM
  • 10E. Mason-ClarkM
  • 49S. CherifF
Substitutes
  • 38G. HamerM
  • 29V. TorpM
  • 16F. OnyekaM
  • 7T. SakamotoM
  • 22J. LatibeaudiereD
  • 12S. MfuniD
  • 25D. BentleyG
  • 9E. SimmsF
  • 34Y. GbohoF
Coach: F. Lampard
Newcastle 4-2-3-1
  • 21L. HorníčekG
  • 67L. MileyD
  • 12M. ThiawD
  • 4S. BotmanD
  • 3L. HallD
  • 6Nico GonzálezM
  • 28J. WillockM
  • 23J. MurphyM
  • 9Y. WissaM
  • 11H. BarnesM
  • 20M. Fernandez-PardoF
Substitutes
  • 10W. OsulaF
  • 1N. PopeG
  • 37A. DedićD
  • 5F. SchärD
  • 33D. BurnD
  • 8A. BambaM
  • 7JoelintonM
  • 17B. TouréF
  • 14Sean SteurM
Coach: Matthias Jaissle

Form going into Coventry vs Newcastle

Coventry

  • W1-0away to Nottingham Forest19 September 2026
  • L0-5Brighton13 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Manchester City5 September 2026
  • L0-1Hull City29 August 2026

Newcastle

  • W2-1Hull City19 September 2026
  • L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
  • D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Coventry failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Coventry failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Coventry conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Newcastle scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Newcastle conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Newcastle had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Coventry6204511-66
11Newcastle62221013-38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Coventry vs Newcastle

  • 12 October 2026Coventry 4–1 NewcastlePremier League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.63 goals for Coventry and 1.56 for Newcastle; the game produced 4 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Jack Rudoni 6' (Coventry), Sidiki Cherif 48' (Coventry), Sven Botman 70' (Newcastle), Ellis Simms 81' (Coventry), Stephen Mfuni 86' (Coventry).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Coventry the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Coventry against 1.56 for Newcastle. Coventry's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/1.17 for Newcastle.