Regular Season - 6 · 12 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

El Mokawloon vs Masr Premier League prediction & result

Arab Contractors Stadium, Cairo
Full time1 – 1

Final score: El Mokawloon 1-1 Masr.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% El Mokawloon, 32% draw, 32% Masr — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: El Mokawloon 1.11, Masr 1.01.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: El Mokawloon vs Masr

43%
Both teams to score
36%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%0-0 13%1-0 13%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts El Mokawloon at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

El Mokawloon2%Draw94%Masr4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
🔁W. Nabhanout: M. Hussein
I. Thiam
20'
🔁Kahrabaout: K. Abdelfattah
29'
M. Hamed
35'
35'
M. Mohamed
🔁D. Dodoout: M. Abdelnasser
46'
⚽A. Baniouwdaassist: I. Thiam
47'
60'
🔁Abdelrahman El Sakranout: M. Hajij
60'
🔁M. Husseinout: M. Ibrahim
60'
🔁A. Atefout: R. Khalil
🔁A. Ouled Behiout: O. Kamal
75'
🔁A. Baniouwdaout: J. Ojera
75'
M. Hamed
79'
M. Hamed
79'
🔁I. Thiamout: Y. Safina
80'
81'
🔁M. Ezzout: Messi
87'
R. Khalil
89'
⚽M. Mohamed
90+5'
M. Rabia

Match stats — El Mokawloon vs Masr

40%Possession60%
7Shots13
2On target6
3Corners7
0.47xG1.53

Goals against chances

El Mokawloon1 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Masr1 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

El Mokawloon 4-2-3-1
  • 18Mohamed FawziG
  • 26KahrabaD
  • 4Hassan Hussein ShakoushD
  • 3Mohamed HamedD
  • 23Joseph OchayaD
  • 6Dokou DodoM
  • 12Omar El WahshM
  • 7Anas BaniouwdaM
  • 14Mostafa GamalM
  • 19Ahmed Ouled BehiM
  • 92Idrissa ThiamF
Substitutes
  • 27Khaled AbdelfattahD
  • 74Mohamed AbdelnasserM
  • 29Omar KamalD
  • 25Joackiam OjeraF
  • 2Youssef Ahmed RamadanD
  • 1Mahmoud Abou El-SaoudG
  • 8Ahmed Mohamed FouadM
  • 28Ibrahim AdelM
  • 22Mido GaberM
Masr 5-3-2
  • 1Ali LotfiG
  • 23Tarek AlaaD
  • 3Abdallah BakriD
  • 34Moussa MohamedD
  • 26Mohamed RabiaD
  • 73Wajdi NabhanD
  • 10Mostafa SaadM
  • 19Mohamed EzzM
  • 74Mahmoud OukaM
  • 9Ahmed AtefF
  • 11Abdelrahman El BanoubyF
Substitutes
  • 2Mohamed HusseinD
  • 72Marwane HajijM
  • 33Mohamed IbrahimM
  • 7Rafaat KhalilF
  • 14Ahmed AdelF
  • 16Mohamed MazzikaG
  • 15Sameh IbrahimD
  • 22Mahmoud Bolbol NabilM
  • 40Marwan HegyD

Form going into El Mokawloon vs Masr

El Mokawloon

  • W2-0away to Wadi Degla15 September 2026
  • D1-1Al Ahly9 September 2026
  • W1-0away to El Gouna FC2 September 2026
  • L2-3Al Masry27 August 2026

Masr

  • W2-1Olympic El Qanah17 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Enppi9 September 2026
  • W1-0away to El Geish1 September 2026
  • L0-2Al Ahly28 August 2026

What these results say

  • El Mokawloon scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for El Mokawloon had two goals or fewer.
  • Masr scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Masr conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8El Mokawloon622276+18
10Masr622256-18

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: El Mokawloon vs Masr

  • 12 October 2026El Mokawloon 1–1 MasrPremier League
  • 6 April 2026Masr 0–0 El MokawloonPremier League
  • 30 March 2026El Mokawloon 1–1 MasrLeague Cup
  • 26 March 2026Masr 0–0 El MokawloonLeague Cup
  • 9 August 2025El Mokawloon 0–2 MasrPremier League
  • 3 May 2024Masr 0–1 El MokawloonPremier League

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.11 goals for El Mokawloon and 1.01 for Masr; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: A. Baniouwda 47' (El Mokawloon), M. Mohamed 89' (Masr).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives El Mokawloon the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for El Mokawloon against 1.01 for Masr. El Mokawloon's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.62 for Masr.