Smouha SC
vs
Ghazl El Mehalla
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Smouha SC 1-0 Ghazl El Mehalla.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Smouha SC, 36% draw, 26% Ghazl El Mehalla — fair odds of 2.63, 2.78 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Smouha SC 0.90, Ghazl El Mehalla 0.67.
Both teams to score: 29%. Over 2.5 goals: 21%, under 2.5: 79%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Smouha SC at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28Ahmed MayhoubG
- 30Ali GamalD
- 24Mohamed RagabD
- 3Mohamed DesoukiD
- 21Abdelghani MohamedD
- 66Mohamed KoneM
- 11Mohamed FaroukM
- 8Samir FekriM
- 10Khaled El GhandourM
- 14Mohamed SaeedM
- 20Pape BadjiF
- 15Samadou AttidjikouM
- 23Fady FaridF
- 29Gabriel ChukwudiF
- 19Mohamed AdelM
- 13Clement NiyigenaD
- 1Hussein TaimorG
- 22Mohamed AbdelsamiaM
- 17Ahmed El NadryF
- 27Hesham BalahaF
- 16Amer MohamedG
- 23Fares Nechat DjabriD
- 3Ahmed El AashD
- 4Ahmed ShoushaD
- 12Yehia ZakariaD
- 20Mory TouréM
- 17Abdel Rahman ShikaM
- 7Mohamed AshrafM
- 8Moaz Abdel SalamM
- 14Abdel Rahman EmadM
- 63Abdo YehiaF
- 44Ahmed YasserM
- 11Mohamed Salem EkbadF
- 30Amr GomaaF
- 9Rached ArfaouiF
- 22Ahmed EtmanM
- 25Mohamed KokoG
- 15Ahmed GamalD
- 10Bassam WalidD
- 5Abdel Fattah ShetaM
Form going into Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla
Smouha SC
- W1-0away to El Geish14 September 2026
- L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahly3 September 2026
- D0-0Asyut Petrol26 August 2026
Ghazl El Mehalla
- L0-1Zamalek SC16 September 2026
- L1-3away to National Bank of Egypt7 September 2026
- D0-0Enppi1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Future FC27 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Smouha SC had two goals or fewer.
- Smouha SC failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Smouha SC failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ghazl El Mehalla conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Smouha SC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Smouha SC vs Ghazl El Mehalla
- 12 October 2026Smouha SC 1–0 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
- 27 November 2025Smouha SC 3–1 Ghazl El MehallaCup
- 16 August 2025Ghazl El Mehalla 0–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 11 April 2025Ghazl El Mehalla 1–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 26 December 2024Smouha SC 2–4 Ghazl El MehallaPremier League
- 2 May 2023Ghazl El Mehalla 0–2 Smouha SCPremier League
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.90 goals for Smouha SC and 0.67 for Ghazl El Mehalla; the game produced 1 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: P. Badji 34' (Smouha SC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Smouha SC the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Smouha SC against 0.67 for Ghazl El Mehalla. Smouha SC's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.77 for Ghazl El Mehalla.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.