Pakhtakor
vs
Al-Qadisiyah FC
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Pakhtakor 1-1 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 15% Pakhtakor, 20% draw, 65% Al-Qadisiyah FC — fair odds of 6.67, 5.00 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).
Expected goals: Pakhtakor 1.00, Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.56.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Model insights: Pakhtakor vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Qadisiyah FC at 65% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pakhtakor vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12V. NazarovG
- 55M. AbdumajidovD
- 5M. PouraliganjiD
- 4Zayed TahseenD
- 34S. NasrullayevD
- 10A. MozgovoyM
- 23Abdurauf Bo'riyevM
- 7K. AlijonovM
- 50FlamarionM
- 21B. ResanM
- 90S. ChineduF
- 22Mukhammad-Bobur KarimovD
- 35S. KuvvatovG
- 99M. MurkaevG
- 17D. KhamdamovM
- 16Miraziz AbdukarimovD
- 20D. AbdullayevD
- 77O. BozorovM
- 29Aymen HusseinF
- 8D. SaitovM
- 1K. CasteelsG
- 4Jehad Abdullatif AhmD
- 17G. ÁlvarezD
- 26Badra Diabbate AliD
- 8N. NándezM
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 5J. WeiglM
- 10Musab Al JuwayrM
- 22C. Bonsu BaahM
- 33J. QuiñonesF
- 32M. ReteguiF
- 70S. SuleimanF
- 30M. SangareF
- 27E. HoussaM
- 35A. Al SiyahiM
- 12Yasir Al ShahraniD
- 9Abdullah Al SalemF
- 15Mohammed Al QahtaniF
- 28Ahmed Al KassarG
- 18Abdulmalik Al-JaberM
Form going into Pakhtakor vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
Pakhtakor
- D1-1away to Al-Ahli Jeddah14 September 2026
Al-Qadisiyah FC
- W2-1Al-Wasl FC14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pakhtakor | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pakhtakor vs Al-Qadisiyah FC
- 12 October 2026Pakhtakor 1–1 Al-Qadisiyah FCAFC Champions League Elite
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.00 goals for Pakhtakor and 2.56 for Al-Qadisiyah FC; the game produced 1 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Tijjani Reijnders 35' (Al-Qadisiyah FC), Dostonbek Khamdamov 89' (Pakhtakor).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Pakhtakor against 2.56 for Al-Qadisiyah FC. Pakhtakor's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/1.02 for Al-Qadisiyah FC.