League Phase - 2 · 12 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result

Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Al Rayyan
Referee: Alexander George King, Australia
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Al-Gharafa 1-2 Esteghlal FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Al-Gharafa, 27% draw, 48% Esteghlal FC — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Al-Gharafa 1.01, Esteghlal FC 1.63.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC

52%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 12%0-1 11%1-2 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Esteghlal FC at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Al-Gharafa0%Draw3%Esteghlal FC97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

32'
🔁Amirmohammad Razaghiniaout: Jasir Asani
37'
⚽Jasir Asaniassist: Saleh Hardani
44'
Jaloliddin Masharipov
45+4'
Roozbeh Cheshmi
🔁Dame Traoreout: Hassan Aladin
45'
⚽Ferjani Sassiassist: Seydou Sano
48'
53'
🔁Jaloliddin Masharipovout: Alireza Koushki
60'
⚽Hossein Goudarzi
🔁Frank Magriout: Amro Surag
64'
67'
🔁Jasir Asaniout: Mohammadhossein Eslami
🔁Seydou Sanoout: Florinel Coman
75'
🔁Abdulrahman Al-Rashidiout: Mason Holgate
75'
🔁Yacine Brahimiout: Amjed Nasar Mohamed
80'
82'
Esmaeil Gholizadeh

Match stats — Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC

45%Possession55%
19Shots10
9On target3
9Corners5
1.59xG0.77

Goals against chances

Al-Gharafa1 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth
Esteghlal FC2 from 0.77 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Al-Gharafa 3-4-3
  • 31A. KoneG
  • 4S. SanoD
  • 18Ayoub Al OuiD
  • 6Dame TraoréD
  • 2Abdulrahman Faiz Al RashidiM
  • 13F. SassiM
  • 29F. DíazM
  • 23Saifeldeen Hassan FadlallaM
  • 96A. OunasF
  • 9F. MagriF
  • 8Y. BrahimiF
Substitutes
  • 90A. HassanF
  • 7F. ComanF
  • 5Mostafa EssamD
  • 16Jamil FriarkhM
  • 27M. HolgateD
  • 24Hamad KahioutG
  • 97A. Nasar MohamedF
  • 1Khalifa AbabacarG
  • 11Amro Abdelfatah Ali SuragD
Coach: Pedro Martins
Esteghlal FC 3-4-3
  • 76H. Far AbbasiG
  • 6S. FallahD
  • 33A. AghasiD
  • 5R. AshurmatovD
  • 2Saleh HardaniM
  • 4R. CheshmiM
  • 8A. RazzaghiniaM
  • 27H. GoudarziM
  • 10J. MasharipovF
  • 11S. SaharkhizanF
  • 87E. SaitmuratovF
Substitutes
  • 80M. EslamiM
  • 9M. AzadiF
  • 7J. AsaniF
  • 88M. AhmadiM
  • 20A. KoushkiF
  • 15A. ZamaniM
  • 60S. HosseinifarG
  • 26Mohammad Mehdi Ghayedi HeydariM
  • 36Alireza MohebaliM
Coach: Sohrab Bakhtiarizadeh

Form going into Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC

Al-Gharafa

  • L1-2away to Al-Hilal15 September 2026

Esteghlal FC

  • W3-0Al Sadd14 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

AFC Champions League Elite table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Al-Gharafa200224-20
2Esteghlal FC220051+46

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC

  • 12 October 2026Al-Gharafa 1–2 Esteghlal FCAFC Champions League Elite
  • 16 September 2024Esteghlal FC 3–0 Al-GharafaAFC Champions League Elite

Leading scorers: Al-Gharafa and Esteghlal FC

Al-Gharafa

No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Esteghlal FC

GoalsAssists

  • J. Asani21

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.01 goals for Al-Gharafa and 1.63 for Esteghlal FC; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Jasir Asani 37' (Esteghlal FC), Ferjani Sassi 48' (Al-Gharafa), Hossein Goudarzi 60' (Esteghlal FC).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Esteghlal FC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Al-Gharafa against 1.63 for Esteghlal FC. Al-Gharafa's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.04 for Esteghlal FC.