Tractor Sazi
vs
Al Shamal
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Tractor Sazi 0-0 Al Shamal.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Tractor Sazi, 22% draw, 14% Al Shamal — fair odds of 1.56, 4.55 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Tractor Sazi 2.18, Al Shamal 0.76.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Tractor Sazi vs Al Shamal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tractor Sazi at 64% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tractor Sazi vs Al Shamal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81P. JafariG
- 11A. AbdullayevD
- 33F. FarajiD
- 3S. KhalilzadehD
- 22M. NaderiD
- 6M. HosseiniM
- 5O. HamrobekovM
- 7T. HalilovićM
- 4M. ZakipourM
- 70S. MoghanlouF
- 99A. HosseinzadehF
- 58M. DaneshgarD
- 44E. Darvish AaliD
- 88S. KarimazarF
- 17M. KazemayniF
- 27A. KhorramiF
- 18S. MoharramiD
- 2M. ShiriD
- 19T. ŠtrkaljF
- 23Yasin ZareG
- 95B. SeckG
- 20Y. SabalyD
- 24J. MurilloD
- 4Pablo MaríD
- 16F. BaisD
- 23Michel TermaniniM
- 28N. BenaïssaM
- 10Álex ColladoM
- 70Tiago SilvaM
- 5M. Ben RomdhaneM
- 22W. SaïdF
- 6Musab KhoderD
- 3Abdelkarim HassanD
- 45Abdullah El RadyG
- 2Moufak AwadD
- 8Ali AsadM
- 67Saoud Al KhaterG
- 14Omar AliF
- 17Abdullah AbdulsalamM
- 37Ahmed SuhailD
Form going into Tractor Sazi vs Al Shamal
Tractor Sazi
- L0-1away to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai14 September 2026
Al Shamal
- D1-1Al-Ittihad14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tractor Sazi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Al Shamal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tractor Sazi vs Al Shamal
- 12 October 2026Tractor Sazi 0–0 Al ShamalAFC Champions League Elite
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Tractor Sazi carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.35 for Al Shamal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Tractor Sazi and 0.76 for Al Shamal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tractor Sazi rate 0.72 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Shamal rate 0.62 and 1.69.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Al Shamal, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tractor Sazi the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Tractor Sazi against 0.76 for Al Shamal. Tractor Sazi's attack/defence rating is 0.72/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.69 for Al Shamal.