Al-Wasl FC
vs
Al-Ahli Jeddah
AFC Champions League Elite prediction & result
Final score: Al-Wasl FC 1-3 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Al-Wasl FC, 25% draw, 44% Al-Ahli Jeddah — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Al-Wasl FC 1.43, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.81.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
All AFC Champions League Elite predictions →
Model insights: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al-Ahli Jeddah at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23D. HorkašG
- 79Pedro MalheiroD
- 4S. BouftiniD
- 34AdryelsonD
- 16HugoD
- 6S. SidibeM
- 5A. PopoolaM
- 30B. PalaciosM
- 31N. GiménezM
- 19SerginhoM
- 9M. TaremiF
- 15S. IvkovićD
- 17Suhail AbdullaG
- 77Leandro SpadacioF
- 10Fábio LimaF
- 20SaldanhaF
- 8Yahia NaderM
- 21Cameron PuertasM
- 96Renato JúniorF
- 14RodrigoD
- 1Abdulrahman Al SanbiG
- 15Saeed BaattiaD
- 28M. DemiralD
- 3IbañezD
- 31Saad YaslamD
- 6V. Atangana EdoaM
- 30Ziyad Al JohaniM
- 7TrincãoM
- 8E. SpertsyanM
- 47Waheb SalehM
- 17I. ToneyF
- 9Feras Al BrikanF
- 5Mohammed BakorD
- 21Abdullah RadifF
- 20Matheus GonçalvesF
- 46Rayane HamidouD
- 4Makaya Ibrahima DiabyM
- 19A. BondarenkoM
- 11Meshal Al MutairiF
- 62Abdullah AbdoG
Form going into Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Wasl FC
- L1-2away to Al-Qadisiyah FC14 September 2026
Al-Ahli Jeddah
- D1-1Pakhtakor14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
AFC Champions League Elite table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Al-Wasl FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
| 5 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- 12 October 2026Al-Wasl FC 1–3 Al-Ahli JeddahAFC Champions League Elite
- 30 September 2024Al-Wasl FC 0–2 Al-Ahli JeddahAFC Champions League Elite
Leading scorers: Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Wasl FC
GoalsAssists
- Pedro Malheiro11
Al-Ahli Jeddah
No player in AFC Champions League Elite's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.43 goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.81 for Al-Ahli Jeddah; the game produced 1 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Roger Ibañez 20' (Al-Ahli Jeddah), Pedro Jorge Gonçalves Malheiro 45' (Al-Wasl FC), Francisco Trincão 58' (Al-Ahli Jeddah), Firas Al-Buraikan 90' (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC against 1.81 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Al-Wasl FC's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah.