Pyramids FC
vs
Ceramica Cleopatra
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Pyramids FC 4-1 Ceramica Cleopatra.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Pyramids FC, 27% draw, 25% Ceramica Cleopatra — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Pyramids FC 1.63, Ceramica Cleopatra 1.02.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Pyramids FC vs Ceramica Cleopatra
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Pyramids FC at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pyramids FC vs Ceramica Cleopatra
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ahmed El-ShenawyG
- 15Mohamed ChibiD
- 3Mahmoud MareiD
- 4Ahmed SamyD
- 29Karim HafezD
- 11Mostafa FathyM
- 18Walid El KartiM
- 14Mohanad LasheenM
- 22Nasser MaherM
- 13Ahmed Nadhir BenboualiF
- 30Mostafa ZikoF
- 8Mahmoud SaberM
- 7Youssef ObamaM
- 20Abdel Rahman MagdiF
- 17Mahmoud ZalakaF
- 34Eiad El AskalanyD
- 16Ziyad HaithemG
- 24Khaled AwadD
- 23Ahmed AtefM
- 9Ahmed AbdelkaderM
- 18Mohamed BassamG
- 8Abdallah MagdyD
- 5Ragab NabilD
- 24Arthur JusticeD
- 27Hussein SayedD
- 28Amr KalawaM
- 17Amr El-SoliaM
- 21Peter GwargisM
- 77Mohamed RedaM
- 19Ayman MokaM
- 9Nejc GradišarF
- 4Ahmed RamadanD
- 22Khaled AlnabrisiF
- 29Marwan OsmanF
- 11Sodiq AwujoolaF
- 10Ahmed BelhadjiM
- 23Mohamed AlaaG
- 31Moaz MosaadM
- 32Fawzi El HenawyM
- 25Ashour ShikaF
Form going into Pyramids FC vs Ceramica Cleopatra
Pyramids FC
- W2-1away to Enppi17 September 2026
- W1-0El Gouna FC9 September 2026
- W1-0away to Al Masry31 August 2026
- W2-0Abu Qair Semad27 August 2026
Ceramica Cleopatra
- W2-0National Bank of Egypt14 September 2026
- W2-0away to Smouha SC8 September 2026
- W2-0Future FC2 September 2026
- W3-1away to Al Ittihad Alexandria28 August 2026
What these results say
- Pyramids FC won every one of these 4 matches.
- Pyramids FC scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Pyramids FC kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ceramica Cleopatra won every one of these 4 matches.
- Ceramica Cleopatra scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Ceramica Cleopatra kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pyramids FC | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 18 |
| 6 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pyramids FC vs Ceramica Cleopatra
- 12 October 2026Pyramids FC 4–1 Ceramica CleopatraPremier League
- 5 May 2026Ceramica Cleopatra 1–1 Pyramids FCPremier League
- 20 February 2026Pyramids FC 1–0 Ceramica CleopatraPremier League
- 9 November 2025Ceramica Cleopatra 2–1 Pyramids FCSuper Cup
- 28 May 2025Ceramica Cleopatra 1–5 Pyramids FCPremier League
- 5 March 2025Pyramids FC 2–1 Ceramica CleopatraPremier League
Leading scorers: Pyramids FC and Ceramica Cleopatra
Pyramids FC
GoalsAssists
- Youssef Obama21
- Nasser Maher20
- Odeh Al Fakhouri20
Ceramica Cleopatra
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Reda22
- Ahmed Belhadji22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.63 goals for Pyramids FC and 1.02 for Ceramica Cleopatra; the game produced 4 and 1.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: A. Magdy 5' (Ceramica Cleopatra), M. Ziko 14' (Pyramids FC), N. Benbouali 20' (Pyramids FC), M. Lasheen 37' (Pyramids FC), Y. Obama 77' (Pyramids FC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pyramids FC the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Pyramids FC against 1.02 for Ceramica Cleopatra. Pyramids FC's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.61 for Ceramica Cleopatra.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.