Livyi Bereh
vs
Zorya Luhansk
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Livyi Bereh 1-3 Zorya Luhansk.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Livyi Bereh, 29% draw, 33% Zorya Luhansk — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Livyi Bereh 1.28, Zorya Luhansk 1.15.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Livyi Bereh at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk
Line-ups
- 12R. ZhmurkoG
- 2O. SokolovD
- 97A. YakymivD
- 13I. KovalenkoD
- 6Sidney Silva SantosD
- 44Y. BanadaM
- 8O. KryvoruchkoM
- 17N. VorobchakM
- 15V. VoloshynM
- 7D. ShastalM
- 20P. FallF
- 74D. IgnatenkoG
- 3I. KotukhaD
- 4V. BondarenkoD
- 10DiegoM
- 25Sergii KosovskyiM
- 38A. ChelyadinM
- 90N. Osei BonsuD
- 11I. KvasnytsyaM
- 37Roman HereshF
- 1O. SaputinG
- 44I. PerdutaD
- 55JordanD
- 77B. KushnirenkoD
- 39Artem MachelyukD
- 8K. DryshlyukM
- 18M. BoykoM
- 27D. JelavićM
- 88S. BahM
- 30I. NesterenkoM
- 28P. BudkivskyiF
- 40ÍtaloD
- 25V. RybakG
- 4G. EskinjaD
- 10JuninhoD
- 5A. JanjiÄD
- 23l. KaravashchenkoG
- 6D. PoparaM
- 21J. BašićM
- 80V. YurchenkoM
Form going into Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk
Livyi Bereh
- W2-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Polessya13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chornomorets4 September 2026
- D1-1Karpaty29 August 2026
Zorya Luhansk
- L0-2Dynamo Kyiv19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bukovyna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Veres Rivne6 September 2026
- L0-3FC Kharkiv31 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Livyi Bereh had two goals or fewer.
- Livyi Bereh failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Zorya Luhansk did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Zorya Luhansk conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Zorya Luhansk had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk
- 12 October 2026Livyi Bereh 1–3 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- 25 April 2025Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Livyi BerehPremier League
- 27 October 2024Livyi Bereh 0–2 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
Leading scorers: Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk
Livyi Bereh
GoalsAssists
- N. Vorobchak20
- Wendell12
Zorya Luhansk
GoalsAssists
- Artem Machelyuk10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.28 goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.15 for Zorya Luhansk; the game produced 1 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Ivan Nesterenko 34' (Zorya Luhansk), Artem Machelyuk 45' (Zorya Luhansk), Igor Gorbach 69' (Zorya Luhansk), Wendell Florencio Brito 73' (Livyi Bereh).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Livyi Bereh the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Livyi Bereh against 1.15 for Zorya Luhansk. Livyi Bereh's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.67 for Zorya Luhansk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.