Burgos
vs
Granada CF
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Burgos 0-1 Granada CF.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Burgos, 29% draw, 24% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Burgos 1.44, Granada CF 0.89.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Model insights: Burgos vs Granada CF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burgos at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burgos vs Granada CF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Ander CanteroG
- 2ÁlexD
- 15Oier LuengoD
- 8GregoD
- 22Brais MartínezD
- 14David GonzálezM
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 12Unai VencedorM
- 19Javi LlabrésM
- 9Álex ForésF
- 16Curro SánchezF
- 21Fermin GarciaF
- 23Alberto DadieD
- 6Sergio GonzálezD
- 20José GrageraM
- 1Bruno IribarneG
- 7Jon KarrikaburuF
- 24S. LencinasM
- 36I. MartinezD
- 11Víctor MollejoF
- 1Alberto FloresG
- 18Sergio LópezD
- 30Juan José Flores CastroD
- 5Manu LamaD
- 16Diego PampínD
- 8Pedro AlemañM
- 4Rubén AlcarazM
- 6GumbauM
- 7Sergio RodelasF
- 11José ArnáizF
- 27M. GambinF
- 17K. BambaF
- 2Pau CasadesúsD
- 35B. DembeleD
- 22B. DialloD
- 33A. GarciaD
- 23B. GimberD
- 3Diego HormigoD
- 13Raúl LizoainG
- 36O. M. ChukwuemekaF
Form going into Burgos vs Granada CF
Burgos
- L1-2away to Almeria3 October 2026
- W1-0Eldense27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Las Palmas20 September 2026
- W3-1AD Ceuta FC11 September 2026
Granada CF
- W3-2away to Real Sociedad II4 October 2026
- L2-3FC Andorra26 September 2026
- L2-3away to Leganes20 September 2026
- D1-1Albacete12 September 2026
What these results say
- Burgos scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Burgos won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Burgos conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Granada CF scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Granada CF conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Granada CF.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Burgos | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada CF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burgos vs Granada CF
- 12 October 2026Burgos 0–1 Granada CFSegunda División
- 16 May 2026Granada CF 0–1 BurgosSegunda División
- 22 September 2025Burgos 1–1 Granada CFSegunda División
- 10 January 2025Granada CF 0–0 BurgosSegunda División
- 29 September 2024Burgos 2–2 Granada CFSegunda División
- 4 March 2023Burgos 1–3 Granada CFSegunda División
Leading scorers: Burgos and Granada CF
Burgos
GoalsAssists
- Álex Forés31
- David González31
Granada CF
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.44 goals for Burgos and 0.89 for Granada CF; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Pedro Alemañ Serna 25' (Granada CF).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Burgos the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Burgos against 0.89 for Granada CF. Burgos's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.51 for Granada CF.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.