Oviedo
vs
Eibar
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Oviedo 3-1 Eibar.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Oviedo, 29% draw, 31% Eibar — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Oviedo 1.33, Eibar 1.11.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Oviedo vs Eibar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oviedo at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Oviedo vs Eibar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Aarón EscandellG
- 21David JiménezD
- 12Dani CalvoD
- 23Carlos DomínguezD
- 15S. RodriguezD
- 16Aritz AldasoroM
- 5Y. DidiM
- 32Enzo PerezM
- 8Mikel GotiM
- 10Alberto ReinaM
- 18V. MingoF
- 2AisarM
- 4David CostasD
- 30Marco EstebanD
- 27Samuel FranganilloG
- 11Jacobo GonzálezF
- 28D. MenendezM
- 25José Luis MoralesF
- 20Pablo SáenzF
- 22Nacho VidalD
- 13Jon MikelG
- 22Álvaro RodríguezD
- 4Unai ElgezabalD
- 23Anaitz ArbillaD
- 24Juan BernatD
- 8Ander MadariagaM
- 30Aleix GarridoM
- 7Malcom AduM
- 11Jon MagunazelaiaM
- 10Jon GuruzetaM
- 9Jon BautistaF
- 18M. AranaD
- 17PejiñoF
- 2Sergio CuberoD
- 3Imanol García de AlbénizD
- 21Iván GilM
- 1Luis LópezG
- 20Javi MartónF
- 5Peru NolaskoainM
- 28Lucas NuñezM
Form going into Oviedo vs Eibar
Oviedo
- L1-4away to Eldense2 October 2026
- W2-0Sporting Gijon27 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sabadell20 September 2026
- W3-0away to Valladolid13 September 2026
Eibar
- W3-1away to Albacete3 October 2026
- W3-2Las Palmas27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Eldense19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Celta de Vigo II14 September 2026
What these results say
- Oviedo scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Oviedo had three goals or more.
- Eibar won every one of these 4 matches.
- Eibar scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Eibar had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Oviedo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 14 |
| 2 | Eibar | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Oviedo vs Eibar
- 12 October 2026Oviedo 3–1 EibarSegunda División
- 5 April 2025Eibar 1–1 OviedoSegunda División
- 29 September 2024Oviedo 1–0 EibarSegunda División
- 12 June 2024Eibar 0–2 OviedoSegunda División
- 8 June 2024Oviedo 0–0 EibarSegunda División
- 2 June 2024Eibar 4–3 OviedoSegunda División
Leading scorers: Oviedo and Eibar
Oviedo
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Domínguez30
Eibar
GoalsAssists
- Jon Guruzeta32
- Iván Gil31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.33 goals for Oviedo and 1.11 for Eibar; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Mikel Goti Lopez 3' (Oviedo), Carlos Dominguez 45' (Oviedo), Iván Gil 74' (Eibar), Carlos Dominguez 85' (Oviedo).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oviedo the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Oviedo against 1.11 for Eibar. Oviedo's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.15 for Eibar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.