Universitatea Cluj
vs
Rapid
Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Universitatea Cluj 3-4 Rapid.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Universitatea Cluj, 27% draw, 33% Rapid — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Universitatea Cluj 1.54, Rapid 1.34.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
All Romanian Liga I predictions →
Model insights: Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Universitatea Cluj at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ştefan Daniel LefterG
- 24D. MikanovićD
- 6I. CristeaD
- 8D. CodreaD
- 27A. ChipciuD
- 94O. BicM
- 7M. DrammehM
- 19I. MacalouM
- 29O. MendyM
- 11M. ȘtefănescuM
- 17J. LukićF
- 2A. ChinteÈD
- 25A. AlievF
- 12A. FridayM
- 77A. GheorghițăF
- 93N. MichaelG
- 21D. MoldovanG
- 10D. NistorM
- 22F. PouloloD
- 33J. StanojevM
- 99B. UngureanuG
- 19R. OneaD
- 18S. SinyanD
- 6L. KramerD
- 66W. L. OuedraogoD
- 8C. GrameniM
- 44C. B. DoumbiaM
- 29A. DobreM
- 80O. MoruțanM
- 7M. KamaraM
- 9F. StojilkovićF
- 27E. AnnanD
- 22V. BubanjaM
- 13D. CiobotariuD
- 90T. JamborF
- 23C. ManeaD
- 5A. PașcanuD
- 10C. PetrilaM
- 55R. PopM
- 21R. SălceanuD
Form going into Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid
Universitatea Cluj
- W3-1away to CFR 1907 Cluj8 October 2026
- W2-0away to FC Voluntari20 September 2026
- W3-0Oțelul14 September 2026
- L0-4away to Universitatea Craiova7 September 2026
Rapid
- W3-1Arges Pitesti18 September 2026
- W2-1FC Voluntari12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Oțelul6 September 2026
- D1-1Universitatea Craiova31 August 2026
What these results say
- Universitatea Cluj won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Universitatea Cluj scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Universitatea Cluj had three goals or more.
- Rapid went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Rapid scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rapid won 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 18 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Universitatea Cluj vs Rapid
- 12 October 2026Universitatea Cluj 3–4 RapidLiga I
- 9 May 2026Universitatea Cluj 1–0 RapidLiga I
- 5 April 2026Rapid 1–2 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 31 January 2026Rapid 0–2 Universitatea ClujLiga I
- 12 September 2025Universitatea Cluj 0–0 RapidLiga I
- 24 May 2025Universitatea Cluj 2–2 RapidLiga I
Leading scorers: Universitatea Cluj and Rapid
Universitatea Cluj
GoalsAssists
- A. Aliev62
- O. Mendy31
Rapid
GoalsAssists
- F. Stojilković31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.54 goals for Universitatea Cluj and 1.34 for Rapid; the game produced 3 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Issouf Macalou 2' (Universitatea Cluj), Mohammed·Kamara 13' (Rapid), Filip Stojiljković 24' (Rapid), Filip Stojiljković 50' (Rapid), Mouhamadou Drammeh 54' (Universitatea Cluj), Dorin Codrea 81' (Universitatea Cluj), Razvan Onea 88' (Rapid).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Universitatea Cluj the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Universitatea Cluj against 1.34 for Rapid. Universitatea Cluj's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.24 for Rapid.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.