11 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti Liga I prediction & result

Central Stadium Hagi Academy, Ovidiu
Referee: Horatiu Fesnic
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Farul Constanta 3-1 Petrolul Ploiesti.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Farul Constanta, 29% draw, 28% Petrolul Ploiesti — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Farul Constanta at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Farul Constanta99%Draw1%Petrolul Ploiesti0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Cristian Ganeaassist: Ionuț Vână
5'
⚽Matteo Ahlinviassist: Eduard Radaslavescu
22'
33'
⚽Alejandro Branassist: Teixeira leo
Victor Dican
51'
🔁Eddy Sylvestreout: Narek Grigoryan
63'
🔁Eduard Radaslavescuout: Răzvan Marincean
63'
🔁Muhamet Hyseniout: Razvan Tanasa
63'
63'
🔁Luciano Gaston Vega Albornozout: Mario Ioniță
63'
🔁Sergiu Hancaout: Dele Ola
70'
Dele Ola
🔁Matteo Ahlinviout: Nicolas Popescu
75'
78'
🔁Paul Pappout: Rareș Leescu
78'
🔁mark tutuout: Tiberiu Căpuşă
78'
🔁Alejandro Branout: Kilian Ludewig
⚽Răzvan Marinceanassist: Razvan Tanasa
89'
89'
Andres Dumitrescu

Match stats — Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti

40%Possession60%
16Shots16
8On target6
6Corners5
1.14xG1.03

Goals against chances

Farul Constanta3 from 1.14 xGmore than the chances were worth
Petrolul Ploiesti1 from 1.03 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Farul Constanta 3-4-3
  • 12R. MunteanuG
  • 24S. BouzamouchaD
  • 17I. LarieD
  • 6V. DicanD
  • 8I. VînăM
  • 23T. NjikéM
  • 70M. AhlinviM
  • 11C. GaneaM
  • 10E. SylvestreF
  • 9M. HyseniF
  • 20E. RădăslăvescuF
Substitutes
  • 27Hassane Rachid Seyd Sabour TraoréD
  • 2D. MafteiD
  • 99Răzvan MarinceanF
  • 80N. PopescuM
  • 71R. TănasăF
  • 3V. ȚicuD
  • 33João FerreiraD
  • 30N. GrigoryanF
  • 29A. GoncearF
Coach: Ovidiu Sabău
Petrolul Ploiesti 4-2-3-1
  • 38L. ZimaG
  • 22M. ȚuțuD
  • 4P. PappD
  • 71B. MalulaD
  • 2A. DumitrescuD
  • 8L. VegaM
  • 20S. HancaM
  • 19Léo TeixeiraM
  • 10A. BranM
  • 7Rodrigo MartinsM
  • 9D. NlunduluF
Substitutes
  • 66T. CăpușăD
  • 18C. HüseynovD
  • 29K. LudewigD
  • 21David IonutM
  • 24Adam ZaianD
  • 28M. CostacheM
  • 12Ș. GeorgescuG
  • 80M. IonițăM
  • 99O. DeleM
Coach: Ricardo Sousa

Form going into Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti

Farul Constanta

  • L0-4away to Dinamo Bucuresti20 September 2026
  • W4-2Uta Arad11 September 2026
  • D0-0away to CFR 1907 Cluj4 September 2026
  • D0-0FC Botosani30 August 2026

Petrolul Ploiesti

  • W2-0Csikszereda21 September 2026
  • D2-2away to FCSB14 September 2026
  • W2-0Corvinul Hunedoara6 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Universitatea Cluj28 August 2026

What these results say

  • Farul Constanta failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Farul Constanta failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Petrolul Ploiesti went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Petrolul Ploiesti scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Petrolul Ploiesti won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Farul Constanta114521715+217
4Petrolul Ploiesti116141415-119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti

  • 11 October 2026Farul Constanta 3–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
  • 15 March 2026Farul Constanta 2–0 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
  • 25 January 2026Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
  • 1 September 2025Farul Constanta 2–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I
  • 28 April 2025Petrolul Ploiesti 0–1 Farul ConstantaLiga I
  • 3 February 2025Farul Constanta 2–1 Petrolul PloiestiLiga I

Leading scorers: Farul Constanta and Petrolul Ploiesti

Farul Constanta

GoalsAssists

  • E. Rădăslăvescu53
  • M. Ahlinvi41
  • Iustin Doicaru31

Petrolul Ploiesti

No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.