Arges Pitesti
vs
CFR 1907 Cluj
Liga I prediction & result
Final score: Arges Pitesti 0-1 CFR 1907 Cluj.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Arges Pitesti, 33% draw, 35% CFR 1907 Cluj — fair odds of 3.13, 3.03 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Arges Pitesti 0.90, CFR 1907 Cluj 0.97.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 29%, under 2.5: 71%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CFR 1907 Cluj at 35% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77I. NikićG
- 26D. OanceaD
- 2A. TofanD
- 15Guilherme GaruttiD
- 23F. BorţaD
- 11Y. PîrvuM
- 22V. RaţăM
- 16I. RădescuM
- 25Tiago GonçalvesM
- 92T. LuvamboF
- 17Ricardo MatosF
- 69O. AdefunyibomiD
- 14Andreas BalasaM
- 96S. BalaureD
- 34C. CăbuzG
- 20P. DulceaM
- 80X. EmmersM
- 29G. GheorgheM
- 8M. MamadouF
- 19C. MicovschiF
- 31O. VâlceanuG
- 3I. GelashviliD
- 41A. KrešićD
- 42R. PantalonD
- 47C. BraunM
- 6O. PerianuM
- 18E. OmićM
- 14Simão RochaM
- 11A. CordeaM
- 17L. BilibocM
- 9S. DražićF
- 99J. DumasF
- 86V. KunM
- 45M. CamoraD
- 7A. NalićM
- 29B. OmraniF
- 66Cristian DavidM
- 10A. PaunM
- 77A. SfaitM
- 96Á. TordaiG
Form going into Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj
Arges Pitesti
- L1-3away to Rapid18 September 2026
- D1-1FC Botosani13 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Voluntari7 September 2026
- L0-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 August 2026
CFR 1907 Cluj
- L1-3Universitatea Cluj8 October 2026
- W3-1FC Botosani19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe12 September 2026
- D0-0Farul Constanta4 September 2026
What these results say
- Arges Pitesti did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Arges Pitesti conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Arges Pitesti had two goals or fewer.
- CFR 1907 Cluj failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- CFR 1907 Cluj scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- CFR 1907 Cluj conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arges Pitesti vs CFR 1907 Cluj
- 12 October 2026Arges Pitesti 0–1 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 22 May 2026CFR 1907 Cluj 1–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 17 April 2026Arges Pitesti 0–1 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 29 November 2025Arges Pitesti 3–0 CFR 1907 ClujLiga I
- 27 July 2025CFR 1907 Cluj 0–2 Arges PitestiLiga I
- 29 October 2024Arges Pitesti 2–2 CFR 1907 ClujCupa României
Leading scorers: Arges Pitesti and CFR 1907 Cluj
Arges Pitesti
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
CFR 1907 Cluj
GoalsAssists
- S. Dražić61
- A. Cordea52
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.90 goals for Arges Pitesti and 0.97 for CFR 1907 Cluj; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Anton Krešić 58' (CFR 1907 Cluj).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CFR 1907 Cluj the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Arges Pitesti against 0.97 for CFR 1907 Cluj. Arges Pitesti's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.46 for CFR 1907 Cluj.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.