Regular Season - 10 · 12 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk I Liga prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Rzeszowie, Rzeszow
Referee: P. Pskit
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Stal Rzeszów 1-2 Lechia Gdansk.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Stal Rzeszów, 25% draw, 50% Lechia Gdansk — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Stal Rzeszów 1.25, Lechia Gdansk 1.97.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk

62%
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%1-2 10%0-2 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lechia Gdansk at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Stal Rzeszów0%Draw4%Lechia Gdansk96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
S. Kopasek
13'
D. Malov
30'
K. Dodaj
⚽S. Goss (pen)assist: S. Goss
31'
36'
⚽V. Blanutaassist: A. Shakh
40'
⚽T. Neugebauer (pen)assist: T. Neugebauer
40'
⚽D. Beskorovaynyiassist: D. Malov
🔁S. Salamonout: A. Buksa
46'
🔁O. Madejout: A. Naifi
46'
🔁M. Leniartout: W. Brzek
65'
🔁S. Pukalaout: M. Listkowski
65'
A. Buksa
65'
71'
🔁A. Shakhout: J. Mena
71'
🔁K. Dodajout: N. Hovhannisyan
⚽A. Buksaassist: S. Goss
77'
80'
🔁V. Blanutaout: M. Glogowski
M. Kaczor
82'
90+1'
🔁T. Wojtowiczout: J. Adkonis
90+1'
🔁T. Neugebauerout: B. Szczepankiewicz

Line-ups

Stal Rzeszów
  • 88M. Koziol
  • 21M. Thiede
  • 39M. Kaczor
  • 3V. Krasovskiy
  • 77K. Kukulka
  • 17O. Madej
  • 8S. Goss
  • 66M. Leniart
  • 27M. Rittmuller
  • 15S. Pukala
  • 76S. Salamon
Substitutes
  • 1S. Vanivskyi
  • 2W. Machura
  • 10A. Naifi
  • 11K. Masiak
  • 16W. Brzek
  • 29M. Listkowski
  • 40E. Wisniowski
  • 41D. Zieja
  • 44A. Buksa
Coach: Marek Zub
Lechia Gdansk
  • 1A. Holewinski
  • 19S. Kopasek
  • 4K. Lopata
  • 21D. Beskorovaynyi
  • 3D. Malov
  • 33T. Wojtowicz
  • 6H. Ivanov
  • 99T. Neugebauer
  • 7K. Dodaj
  • 97V. Blanuta
  • 13A. Shakh
Substitutes
  • 22S. Weirauch
  • 8J. Adkonis
  • 17I. Bambecki
  • 9M. Glogowski
  • 20N. Hovhannisyan
  • 40W. Madej
  • 30J. Mena
  • 88B. Szczepankiewicz
  • 23A. Ziolkowski
Coach: Vladyslav Lupashko

Form going into Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk

Stal Rzeszów

  • W3-2away to Miedz Legnica19 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Odra Opole13 September 2026
  • W2-1Polonia Warszawa5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Unia Skierniewice28 August 2026

Lechia Gdansk

  • W7-1Stal Mielec19 September 2026
  • W2-1Miedz Legnica13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Nieciecza4 September 2026
  • W4-2away to Polonia Warszawa29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Stal Rzeszów won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Stal Rzeszów scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lechia Gdansk scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lechia Gdansk conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Lechia Gdansk had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Stal Rzeszów104241117-614
4Lechia Gdansk105141916+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk

  • 12 October 2026Stal Rzeszów 1–2 Lechia GdanskI Liga
  • 27 April 2024Stal Rzeszów 4–2 Lechia GdanskI Liga
  • 28 October 2023Lechia Gdansk 2–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.25 goals for Stal Rzeszów and 1.97 for Lechia Gdansk; the game produced 1 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: V. Blanuta 36' (Lechia Gdansk), D. Beskorovaynyi 40' (Lechia Gdansk), A. Buksa 77' (Stal Rzeszów).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lechia Gdansk the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Stal Rzeszów against 1.97 for Lechia Gdansk. Stal Rzeszów's attack/defence rating is 0.51/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.51 for Lechia Gdansk.