Mallorca vs Las Palmas Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Mallorca 3-1 Las Palmas.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Mallorca, 25% draw, 21% Las Palmas — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mallorca at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mallorca vs Las Palmas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Arnau TenasG
- 15John NwankwoD
- 24M. ValjentD
- 21RaílloD
- 5Alberto MorenoD
- 33Adrian LisoM
- 6Antonio SánchezM
- 7Álex SalaM
- 19Josep CerdàM
- 18FuentesF
- 20Pablo TorreF
- 4David LópezD
- 3Toni LatoD
- 30J. KalumbaF
- 2Guille FernándezM
- 10DarderM
- 25Iván CuéllarG
- 34M. CalatayudD
- 16A. BuksaF
- 13L. BergströmG
- 13José CaroG
- 25Valentín PezzolesiD
- 4Álex SuárezD
- 15Juan HerzogD
- 44Adrián Rodríguez del RosarioD
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 12E. LoiodiceM
- 6Iñaki González ZambranoM
- 20Kirian RodríguezM
- 24Iván JaimeM
- 7Jefté BetancorF
- 26A. BassingaM
- 16Mateo AcimovicM
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 32Rafa CruzF
- 28Aimar Domínguez RodríguezM
- 14Manu FusterM
- 30I. MedinaF
- 3N. OpokuD
- 23A. RodriguezD
Form going into Mallorca vs Las Palmas
Mallorca
- D0-0away to Girona4 October 2026
- L0-1Almeria27 September 2026
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II19 September 2026
- W2-0Sabadell13 September 2026
Las Palmas
- D2-2Valladolid4 October 2026
- L2-3away to Eibar27 September 2026
- L1-2Burgos20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz12 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 4 matches for Mallorca had two goals or fewer.
- Mallorca kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Las Palmas scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Las Palmas failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Las Palmas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mallorca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 17 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mallorca vs Las Palmas
- 11 October 2026Mallorca 3–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 16 February 2025Mallorca 3–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 23 November 2024Las Palmas 2–3 MallorcaLa Liga
- 11 May 2024Mallorca 1–0 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 12 August 2023Las Palmas 1–1 MallorcaLa Liga
- 4 April 2021Las Palmas 1–1 MallorcaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Mallorca and Las Palmas
Mallorca
GoalsAssists
- Fuentes51
Las Palmas
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.