Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Cadiz 0-1 Sporting Gijon.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Cadiz, 29% draw, 37% Sporting Gijon — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Gijon at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1David GilG
- 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
- 4Javi CastroD
- 6Manu FernándezD
- 3Sergio ArribasD
- 18Jandro OrellanaM
- 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
- 24Ibon SánchezM
- 17A. MoueffekM
- 16Antonio CorderoM
- 21V. KopotunF
- 9Álvaro GarcíaF
- 13Jokin EzkietaG
- 19Urko IzetaF
- 14B. KovačevićD
- 10Javi OntiverosM
- 25G. PetitF
- 23Damián RodríguezM
- 8E. AghamaF
- 31N. UkwuijeD
- 1Rubén YáñezG
- 2Guille RosasD
- 4E. GularteD
- 23Jorge SáenzD
- 44Andrés CuencaD
- 8M. RodriguezM
- 14Álex CorrederaM
- 27Enol PrendesM
- 10César GelabertM
- 7Gaspar CamposM
- 16A. SarcoF
- 15Pablo VázquezD
- 5Diego SánchezD
- 34Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezM
- 26Iker MartínezD
- 21M. LoumM
- 22Hugo GuillamónM
- 3Pablo GarcíaD
- 35C. FerreresM
- 28M. CondeF
Form going into Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon
Cadiz
- W4-0Leganes3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tenerife26 September 2026
- L1-2Girona19 September 2026
- L0-1Las Palmas12 September 2026
Sporting Gijon
- W3-2Celta de Vigo II4 October 2026
- L0-2away to Oviedo27 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
- L0-1Eldense13 September 2026
What these results say
- Cadiz failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cadiz scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cadiz conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sporting Gijon conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cadiz | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cadiz vs Sporting Gijon
- 11 October 2026Cadiz 0–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 19 April 2026Sporting Gijon 3–0 CadizSegunda División
- 9 January 2026Cadiz 3–2 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 25 April 2025Cadiz 1–0 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 2 November 2024Sporting Gijon 2–0 CadizSegunda División
- 15 January 2022Sporting Gijon 0–0 CadizCopa del Rey
Leading scorers: Cadiz and Sporting Gijon
Cadiz
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Cordero31
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.