11 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

FC Andorra vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result

Estadi de la FAF, Encamp
Referee: Abraham Domínguez Cervantes
Full time1 – 0

Final score: FC Andorra 1-0 Castellón.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% FC Andorra, 27% draw, 42% Castellón — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Castellón at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Andorra95%Draw5%Castellón0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Carles Manso Rubio
12'
⚽Moró Sidibeassist: Jordi Cano
13'
Efe Akman
31'
Marc Doménech Costa
38'
45'
🔁Raúl Sánchezout: Alvaro Martin
45'
🔁Lucas Alcázarout: Íñigo Córdoba
65'
🔁Pablo Santiagoout: Álvaro García Arana
65'
🔁Diego Barriout: rodrigo rego
🔁Efe Akmanout: Randy Schneider
65'
Lautaro Marco Spatz
67'
🔁Diego Díazout: Julian Rijkhoff
72'
🔁Jordi Canoout: Lautaro De León
72'
•Julian Rijkhoff
78'
80'
🔁Matías Orozcoout: antonio gala
🔁Lautaro Marco Spatzout: Juan Sebastián Serrano
80'
🔁Moró Sidibeout: Nacho Quintana
80'
83'
Agustín Sienra
90+1'
Alberto Jiménez
90+2'
Pablo Hernández Domínguez
Julian Rijkhoff
90+3'

Match stats — FC Andorra vs Castellón

43%Possession57%
16Shots12
8On target3
4Corners7
2.63xG0.72

Goals against chances

FC Andorra1 from 2.63 xGless than the chances were worth
Castellón0 from 0.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Andorra 4-3-3
  • 25Jesús OwonoG
  • 17T. CarriqueD
  • 3L. SpatzD
  • 23Diego AlendeD
  • 20Martí VilàD
  • 10Marc DomènechM
  • 14Sergio MolinaM
  • 8E. AkmanM
  • 22D. DiazF
  • 15Jordi CanoF
  • 21Moró SidibeF
Substitutes
  • 9Julian Dean RijkhoffF
  • 1N. RattiG
  • 19Nacho QuintanaM
  • 28T. OlmedoM
  • 29Hugo LópezF
  • 27S. GolubovicF
  • 12E. SaliF
  • 16R. SchneiderM
  • 2Juan SerranoD
Coach: Carles Manso
Castellón 4-4-2
  • 13R. MatthysG
  • 22J. MellotD
  • 5Alberto JiménezD
  • 4A. SienraD
  • 12Lucas AlcázarD
  • 18Pablo SantiagoM
  • 8BarriM
  • 6M. OrozcoM
  • 16A. JakobsenM
  • 10Israel SueroF
  • 7Raúl SánchezF
Substitutes
  • 11F. CeccheriniD
  • 20Martín CondeD
  • 14Iñigo CórdobaM
  • 26Rodrigo Miguel Ferreira RêgoF
  • 27A. GalaM
  • 23Varo GarcíaF
  • 15I. KostisD
  • 21Álvaro MartínM
  • 24D. Muale NzanzaF
Coach: Pablo Hernández

Form going into FC Andorra vs Castellón

FC Andorra

  • D0-0away to Sabadell4 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Granada CF26 September 2026
  • L1-3Sporting Gijon19 September 2026
  • L1-3Real Sociedad II12 September 2026

Castellón

  • D1-1AD Ceuta FC4 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Leganes28 September 2026
  • W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Andorra failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Andorra scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Andorra conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Castellón went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Castellón scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Castellón won 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17FC Andorra93151315-210
3Castellón9621154+1120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Andorra vs Castellón

  • 11 October 2026FC Andorra 1–0 CastellónSegunda División
  • 1 February 2026Castellón 2–0 FC AndorraSegunda División
  • 22 November 2025FC Andorra 1–3 CastellónSegunda División
  • 26 March 2022FC Andorra 1–0 CastellónPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
  • 11 December 2021Castellón 1–3 FC AndorraPrimera División RFEF - Group 2

Leading scorers: FC Andorra and Castellón

FC Andorra

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Cano42

Castellón

GoalsAssists

  • Ousmane Camara41
  • Israel Suero32

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.