Almeria vs Leganes Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Almeria 3-0 Leganes.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% Almeria, 24% draw, 16% Leganes — fair odds of 1.67, 4.17 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Almeria at 60% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Almeria vs Leganes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Andrés FernándezG
- 22D. ChirinoD
- 21ChumiD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 3Álex MuñozD
- 29S. DžodićM
- 14Javi MuñozM
- 33Quim JunyentM
- 11Sergio ArribasM
- 17B. CipengaM
- 9ThalysF
- 10Nico MelamedM
- 13Fernando MartínezG
- 2Marcos LunaD
- 7Jon MorcilloF
- 5Jorge PulidoD
- 31Á. YaakobishviliG
- 15Leonardo LeloD
- 24Miguel de la FuenteF
- 26K. KoneM
- 13L. ZidaneG
- 11Naim GarcíaD
- 6Lalo AguilarD
- 5Ignasi MiquelD
- 2MarvelD
- 23Álvaro TejeroD
- 10Z. BuurmeesterM
- 20Miguel AtienzaM
- 14Dani RodríguezM
- 17Ismaël GharbiF
- 21Álvaro MorataF
- 18Andrés CamposF
- 24A. DiawaraM
- 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedF
- 1Raúl FernándezG
- 15Enric FranquesaD
- 8Y. KechtaM
- 9Álex MillánF
- 3Javi MonteroD
- 19P. SokoF
Form going into Almeria vs Leganes
Almeria
- W2-1Burgos3 October 2026
- W1-0away to Mallorca27 September 2026
- W2-0Celta de Vigo II20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Cordoba12 September 2026
Leganes
- L0-4away to Cadiz3 October 2026
- L0-2Castellón28 September 2026
- W3-2Granada CF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Tenerife13 September 2026
What these results say
- Almeria won every one of these 4 matches.
- Almeria scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Almeria kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Leganes conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Leganes failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Leganes failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 21 |
| 16 | Leganes | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Almeria vs Leganes
- 11 October 2026Almeria 3–0 LeganesSegunda División
- 5 April 2026Almeria 2–1 LeganesSegunda División
- 22 November 2025Leganes 0–3 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 15 January 2025Almeria 2–3 LeganesCopa del Rey
- 29 May 2022Leganes 2–2 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 29 October 2021Almeria 1–0 LeganesSegunda División
Leading scorers: Almeria and Leganes
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente51
Leganes
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.