Valladolid
vs
Albacete
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Valladolid 5-0 Albacete.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Valladolid, 27% draw, 23% Albacete — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Valladolid 1.69, Albacete 0.97.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
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Model insights: Valladolid vs Albacete
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Valladolid at 50% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valladolid vs Albacete
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álvaro AcevesG
- 14Iván AlejoD
- 15Pablo TomeoD
- 4David TorresD
- 27Iván GarrielD
- 24S. JurićM
- 8T. OjedaM
- 30Víctor FernándezM
- 21J. PonceauM
- 9Juanmi LatasaF
- 19Adrian ArnuncioF
- 18ClercD
- 3Homam AhmedD
- 16Álex BalboaM
- 17Victor BarberáF
- 11Yeray CabanzónF
- 20R. DuivenF
- 22K. de RooijF
- 2TrilliD
- 5Ramón MartínezD
- 13Diego MariñoG
- 15Fran GámezD
- 24VallejoD
- 22Lluís LópezD
- 21Carlos NevaD
- 17José CorpasM
- 14San BartoloméM
- 6Antonio PachecoM
- 11Víctor ValverdeM
- 10RóberF
- 9Mario SoberónF
- 12Higinio MarínF
- 8Javi VillarM
- 28A. VelillaD
- 19Alex RubioF
- 18Sergio OrtuM
- 44Antonio DavidM
- 4Agus MedinaM
- 1Carlos MarínG
- 40Jota DomingoD
Form going into Valladolid vs Albacete
Valladolid
- D2-2away to Las Palmas4 October 2026
- W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
- D1-1away to AD Ceuta FC20 September 2026
- L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026
Albacete
- L1-3Eibar3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Girona25 September 2026
- L1-2Cordoba18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Granada CF12 September 2026
What these results say
- Valladolid conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Valladolid failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Valladolid scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Albacete did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Albacete conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Albacete scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 22 | Albacete | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 20 | -15 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valladolid vs Albacete
- 12 October 2026Valladolid 5–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 24 January 2026Valladolid 0–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 21 September 2025Albacete 2–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 12 February 2024Valladolid 0–0 AlbaceteSegunda División
- 1 September 2023Albacete 2–0 ValladolidSegunda División
- 12 May 2018Valladolid 3–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
Leading scorers: Valladolid and Albacete
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio31
- Juanmi Latasa30
Albacete
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.69 goals for Valladolid and 0.97 for Albacete; the game produced 5 and 0.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: J. Ponceau 14' (Valladolid), D. Torres 22' (Valladolid), A. Arnuncio 31' (Valladolid), J. Latasa 37' (Valladolid), A. Arnuncio 54' (Valladolid).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Valladolid the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Valladolid against 0.97 for Albacete. Valladolid's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.66 for Albacete.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.