Famalicao
vs
Alverca
Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Famalicao 1-4 Alverca.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Famalicao, 28% draw, 30% Alverca — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Famalicao 1.46, Alverca 1.13.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Model insights: Famalicao vs Alverca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Famalicao at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Famalicao vs Alverca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25L. CarevićG
- 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
- 36M. MattaraD
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 28Pedro FranciscoD
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 21Tamás SzücsM
- 23Gil DiasM
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 7SorrisoM
- 70G. KoutsiasF
- 9U. AbubakarF
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 24Mathis JangealM
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 3L. RealpeD
- 33P. SalasF
- 10Pedro SantosF
- 30V. SerafimovićD
- 6T. van de LooiM
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 12I. JamesD
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
- 35RayanM
- 6D. GuiM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 19D. CamaraF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 91JhonatanG
- 26Matheus FrançaF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 27Toni TamaritF
- 2ZoubdiF
- 7André VidigalF
- 93Zé RafaelM
- 4Y. BojangD
Form going into Famalicao vs Alverca
Famalicao
- W4-0away to Nacional19 September 2026
- D1-1Sporting CP13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Estrela5 September 2026
- D0-0GIL Vicente30 August 2026
Alverca
- W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Nacional12 September 2026
- L1-2SC Braga5 September 2026
- D1-1Santa Clara29 August 2026
What these results say
- Famalicao went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Famalicao failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Famalicao scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Alverca scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Alverca conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Alverca.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Alverca
- 12 October 2026Famalicao 1–4 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 16 May 2026Famalicao 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- 4 January 2026Alverca 1–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 20 November 2021Alverca 1–2 FamalicaoTaça de Portugal
Leading scorers: Famalicao and Alverca
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
- D. Camara30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.46 goals for Famalicao and 1.13 for Alverca; the game produced 1 and 4.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Francisco Chiquinho 14' (Alverca), Víctor Rofino Gordo 39' (Famalicao), Lucas Figueiredo dos Santos 56' (Alverca), Vivaldo Semedo 77' (Alverca), André Vidigal 85' (Alverca).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Famalicao the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Famalicao against 1.13 for Alverca. Famalicao's attack/defence rating is 0.87/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.11 for Alverca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.