Eyüpspor
vs
Göztepe
Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Eyüpspor 0-4 Göztepe.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Eyüpspor, 25% draw, 49% Göztepe — fair odds of 3.85, 4.00 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Eyüpspor 1.21, Göztepe 1.89.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Eyüpspor vs Göztepe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Göztepe at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Eyüpspor vs Göztepe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Horațiu MoldovanG
- 77Konrad MichalakD
- 88Chandrel MassangaD
- 4Seyfettin Anıl YaşarD
- 33Zak JulesD
- 21Simone GiordanoD
- 8David CostaM
- 28Taşkın IlterM
- 70Mete DemirM
- 29Ahmed AbdullahiF
- 9Yusuf BarasıF
- 7Talha ÜlvanD
- 11Lenny PintorF
- 15Charles-Andre Raux YaoM
- 18Hamza AkmanM
- 98Bilal BoutobbaF
- 1Emre BilginG
- 42Berhan SatliD
- 27Yiğit DemirD
- 3Arda YavuzD
- 1Arda ÖzçimenG
- 4Taha AltıkardeşD
- 19Noah Sonko SundbergD
- 26Malcom BokeleD
- 2Arda KurtulanM
- 5RhaldneyM
- 20Novatus MiroshiM
- 12Richard AkonnorM
- 8Alexis AntunesF
- 39JandersonF
- 9Juan Santos da SilvaF
- 7André HenriqueF
- 22Sinclair ArmstrongF
- 6Alex MatosM
- 10Efkan BekiroğluM
- 18Tino AnjorinM
- 33Mehmet Şamil ÖztürkG
- 13Ege YildirimD
- 17Gökdeniz BayrakdarF
- 14Bekir Turaç BökeF
Form going into Eyüpspor vs Göztepe
Eyüpspor
- L0-8away to Fenerbahçe20 September 2026
- L0-2Rizespor12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Çorum FK6 September 2026
- W2-1Alanyaspor30 August 2026
Göztepe
- D2-2Rizespor20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Alanyaspor12 September 2026
- L2-4Gaziantep FK7 September 2026
- L2-3away to Galatasaray29 August 2026
What these results say
- Eyüpspor conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Eyüpspor failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Eyüpspor failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Göztepe did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Göztepe scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Göztepe conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 3 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Eyüpspor vs Göztepe
- 12 October 2026Eyüpspor 0–4 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 28 February 2026Göztepe 0–0 EyüpsporSüper Lig
- 27 September 2025Eyüpspor 0–0 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 16 March 2025Göztepe 1–1 EyüpsporSüper Lig
- 19 October 2024Eyüpspor 1–0 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 4 May 2024Eyüpspor 0–3 Göztepe1. Lig
Leading scorers: Eyüpspor and Göztepe
Eyüpspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan50
- André Henrique31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.21 goals for Eyüpspor and 1.89 for Göztepe; the game produced 0 and 4.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Juan 11' (Göztepe), Andre Henrique 54' (Göztepe), Andre Henrique 59' (Göztepe), Andre Henrique 76' (Göztepe).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,819 correct results out of 3,801 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Göztepe the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Eyüpspor against 1.89 for Göztepe. Eyüpspor's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.36 for Göztepe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.